In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
It's hard to believe that I've been at this for 17 whole weeks! It's been a fun, if not particularly profitable, ride. I would say that the season as a whole has been fairly successful. Even if this week's pick loses, it would still have been a profitable venture overall. I've cooled off significantly since a strong start, but I also managed to successfully pick a few real, nobody-gave-them-a-chance underdogs.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ DAL
Line:
DAL +6.5
DAL +230 ML
Much of the attention has been on the whole Romo (and Orton) thing, but how come noone talks about these two teams' earlier meeting this season? Foles started that game and they couldn't get anything going. Sure there's no Sean Lee now on Dallas' defense, but Romo didn't play particularly well that game either. While Orton may not be able to lead a huge comeback, he's also been a very consistent player throughout his career. Murray wasn't in that first game either, and his return will be big for Dallas here in the rematch. If the Eagles can't jump out to a big lead, they could easily be the ones in trouble in a close game late.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 seasons, one winner-gets-the-division game has been played each year and was won by the home team.
Record:
ATS 9-7
ML 6-10 +125
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 16 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Sorry for the late post, and happy holidays to all!
Underdog of the Week:
CHI @ PHI
Line:
CHI +2.5
CHI +115 ML
While much has been made about the Eagles' "high powered offense" under Chip Kelly, it's unclear how well Philly actually does in a shootout, and they weren't up to the task last week at Minnesota. On the other hand, whether it's been Cutler or McCown under center, the Bears have been able to score. Chicago should also be more motivated, as the NFC North playoff picture is still unclear while the NFC East will come down to the week 17 game regardless.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the last 2 seasons, week 16 home favorites favored by a FG or less went 1-5 SU and ATS.
Record:
ATS 9-6
ML 6-9 +225
Sorry for the late post, and happy holidays to all!
Underdog of the Week:
CHI @ PHI
Line:
CHI +2.5
CHI +115 ML
While much has been made about the Eagles' "high powered offense" under Chip Kelly, it's unclear how well Philly actually does in a shootout, and they weren't up to the task last week at Minnesota. On the other hand, whether it's been Cutler or McCown under center, the Bears have been able to score. Chicago should also be more motivated, as the NFC North playoff picture is still unclear while the NFC East will come down to the week 17 game regardless.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the last 2 seasons, week 16 home favorites favored by a FG or less went 1-5 SU and ATS.
Record:
ATS 9-6
ML 6-9 +225
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 15 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
One thing that got lost among last week's crazy finishes was that if Antonio Brown had kept his toe in bounds, all favorites would have won straight up last week.
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ STL
Line:
STL +5.5
STL +210 ML
To me, this is the perfect let down spot for the Saints. They could easily be looking ahead to next week's game at Carolina, which rates to be their biggest game of the regular season. The public should be all over them as they just had a dominating win against those same division leading Panthers, but they do head into this week's game on short rest. Add to that New Orleans' big home-road disparity, and this is a recipe for an upset. St Louis has also been fairly frisky all year, and their last two losses were both on the road against teams in the playoff hunt with stellar defenses.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 3 years, week 15 favorites have only won without covering twice. As they either covered or lost outright, maybe we shouldn't worry about back door covers this week.
Record:
ATS 8-6
ML 5-9 +15
One thing that got lost among last week's crazy finishes was that if Antonio Brown had kept his toe in bounds, all favorites would have won straight up last week.
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ STL
Line:
STL +5.5
STL +210 ML
To me, this is the perfect let down spot for the Saints. They could easily be looking ahead to next week's game at Carolina, which rates to be their biggest game of the regular season. The public should be all over them as they just had a dominating win against those same division leading Panthers, but they do head into this week's game on short rest. Add to that New Orleans' big home-road disparity, and this is a recipe for an upset. St Louis has also been fairly frisky all year, and their last two losses were both on the road against teams in the playoff hunt with stellar defenses.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 3 years, week 15 favorites have only won without covering twice. As they either covered or lost outright, maybe we shouldn't worry about back door covers this week.
Record:
ATS 8-6
ML 5-9 +15
Monday, December 9, 2013
There Will Be Leftovers 3: Strand Smokehouse's Thanksgiving Package was a Great Deal (food)
I don't eat turkey that frequently in my every day life, but I do try to keep a tradition of eating turkey on Thanksgiving. I don't tend to make a big deal of it, though, and the past couple of years I've just ended up getting Boston Market. I do find myself checking out all the Thanksgiving offerings at different restaurants in the city just because I'm curious, and this year, one takeout package caught my eye.
Strand Smokehouse is a fairly large beer garden and bbq joint located in Astoria. The by the pound bbq here is cheaper than almost all of the well known places in Manhattan, and the brisket is solid. They've only been in business for a little over a year, so this was the first time they've offered Thanksgiving packages. I chose the smaller package, which they advertised as serving 4-6 people for $95 plus tax.
There were four large biscuits which seemed rock hard on the outside, but were actually delicious and very buttery on the inside. There was also a pint of cranberry sauce, which was nice and tart as opposed to some super sweet ones I've come across over the years.
There were two large containers of salad, with fresh lettuce, cucumber slices, onions, squash, and crumbles of goat cheese. The goat cheese and squash provided a good balance of savoriness and flavor, and worked well with the accompanying pint of vinaigrette.
I'm personally not a big fan of cornbread, so I wasn't particularly fond of the two quarts of cornbread stuffing. I found it too sweet overall, and would have preferred that they cooked it with more aromatics. I did find it more palatable to eat cold, when I was more embracing of the sweetness and the texture of stale cornbread.
The quart of mashed potatoes was advertised as garlic mashed, but I didn't get much garlic flavor and got a lot of white pepper flavor. The potatoes themselves had an excellent mixed texture. The white gravy was ok, but not particularly flavorful.
Two quarts of densely packed mac and cheese had a nice kick of bell pepper flavor. The pasta was decently coated, but it wasn't overflowing with gooey cheese sauce.
The tray of green bean casserole was as one would expect from beans, cream of mushroom soup, and fried onion bits. It could have used a bit more seasoning.
The main event was the 10-13lb whole smoked turkey. The meat was tender, the smoke flavor was evident (especially in the smell) without being overpowering, and the skin had a nice snap to it. As it was smoked, the turkey was great as leftovers the next couple of days, whether cold for sandwiches or reheated with gravy.
Being that the turkey was smoked, it doesn't carve the same way a roasted turkey does.
There was also a choice of dessert between apple and pumpkin pies, and pumpkin cheesecake. My guess is these were baked at Bakeway, a bakery down the street where I picked up the food on Thanksgiving day. The pumpkin cheesecake was delicious and creamy, with a light, delicate flavor.
So in total, there was one whole 10-13lb smoked turkey, two large salads with dressing, two quarts of mac and cheese, two quarts of cornbread stuffing, one quart of mashed potatoes, one tray of green bean casserole, one pint of gravy, one pint of cranberry sauce, four large biscuits, and one whole large cake or pie. I know they advertised it as serving 4-6, but I felt like the whole package would easily serve 6 people with leftovers. So while nothing was particularly gourmet or gussied up, it still felt like a great value at $95 plus tax.
Strand Smokehouse
25-27 Broadway
Astoria, NY 11106
Strand Smokehouse is a fairly large beer garden and bbq joint located in Astoria. The by the pound bbq here is cheaper than almost all of the well known places in Manhattan, and the brisket is solid. They've only been in business for a little over a year, so this was the first time they've offered Thanksgiving packages. I chose the smaller package, which they advertised as serving 4-6 people for $95 plus tax.
There were four large biscuits which seemed rock hard on the outside, but were actually delicious and very buttery on the inside. There was also a pint of cranberry sauce, which was nice and tart as opposed to some super sweet ones I've come across over the years.
The main event was the 10-13lb whole smoked turkey. The meat was tender, the smoke flavor was evident (especially in the smell) without being overpowering, and the skin had a nice snap to it. As it was smoked, the turkey was great as leftovers the next couple of days, whether cold for sandwiches or reheated with gravy.
Being that the turkey was smoked, it doesn't carve the same way a roasted turkey does.
So in total, there was one whole 10-13lb smoked turkey, two large salads with dressing, two quarts of mac and cheese, two quarts of cornbread stuffing, one quart of mashed potatoes, one tray of green bean casserole, one pint of gravy, one pint of cranberry sauce, four large biscuits, and one whole large cake or pie. I know they advertised it as serving 4-6, but I felt like the whole package would easily serve 6 people with leftovers. So while nothing was particularly gourmet or gussied up, it still felt like a great value at $95 plus tax.
Strand Smokehouse
25-27 Broadway
Astoria, NY 11106
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 14 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Of course after I'd given up on the Falcons they were the ones that pulled off the upset when I had to choose between Atlanta and New Orleans.
Underdog of the Week:
DET @ PHI
Line:
DET +2.5
DET +125 ML
With three quarters of the season gone and no bye weeks left, stamina is going to matter. Having any extra days of rest for prep should be a distinct advantage. There were six teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday, and this week three of them are road underdogs getting less than a FG.
Of those three underdogs, Detroit has the best road record, which is one of the reasons I'm picking them. Another reason I like Detroit is that I think they match up well against Philadelphia. Even though the Eagles held on for a solid win against a good Arizona team, their secondary still looked vulnerable, and I can't imagine any lead to be safe with that defense against the Lions' passing offense. And while Foles' amazing QB numbers have been in the spotlight recently, I still think much of what makes that offense go is McCoy, and Detroit actually has a solid run defense.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 years, underdogs that played on Thanksgiving Thursday the previous week have gone 9-2 ATS and 4-7 straight up.
Record:
ATS 8-5
ML 5-8 +115
Of course after I'd given up on the Falcons they were the ones that pulled off the upset when I had to choose between Atlanta and New Orleans.
Underdog of the Week:
DET @ PHI
Line:
DET +2.5
DET +125 ML
With three quarters of the season gone and no bye weeks left, stamina is going to matter. Having any extra days of rest for prep should be a distinct advantage. There were six teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday, and this week three of them are road underdogs getting less than a FG.
Of those three underdogs, Detroit has the best road record, which is one of the reasons I'm picking them. Another reason I like Detroit is that I think they match up well against Philadelphia. Even though the Eagles held on for a solid win against a good Arizona team, their secondary still looked vulnerable, and I can't imagine any lead to be safe with that defense against the Lions' passing offense. And while Foles' amazing QB numbers have been in the spotlight recently, I still think much of what makes that offense go is McCoy, and Detroit actually has a solid run defense.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 years, underdogs that played on Thanksgiving Thursday the previous week have gone 9-2 ATS and 4-7 straight up.
Record:
ATS 8-5
ML 5-8 +115
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 13 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
I finally hit a big underdog who won outright!
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ SEA
Line:
NO +5
NO +180 ML
Thanksgiving is one of the few public holidays in the US that begin in the middle of the week, so it drastically affects a lot of people's schedules. In the same way, my guess is it affects how NFL teams prepare, and a team with a few extra days might have a nice edge. The Saints and the Falcons played each other in last week's Thursday game, and both are underdogs this week.
Since I've already said that I'm done with the Falcons, I'm left with the Saints. There's plenty of motivation here as this is practically a playoff game for the Saints, with Carolina breathing down their necks and a chance at home field throughout if they can get the win here. There might also be a revenge factor at play as the Saints' last visit to Seattle was a playoff loss as a heavy favorite three seasons ago. The Saints also get Sproles back, who is essential as the short passing game with him is pretty much their equivalent of a running game.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Since Thursday night games became a staple of the schedule, Thanksgiving week underdogs who played the Thursday night game the previous week have a 5-3 straight up record.
Record:
ATS 8-4
ML 5-7 +215
I finally hit a big underdog who won outright!
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ SEA
Line:
NO +5
NO +180 ML
Thanksgiving is one of the few public holidays in the US that begin in the middle of the week, so it drastically affects a lot of people's schedules. In the same way, my guess is it affects how NFL teams prepare, and a team with a few extra days might have a nice edge. The Saints and the Falcons played each other in last week's Thursday game, and both are underdogs this week.
Since I've already said that I'm done with the Falcons, I'm left with the Saints. There's plenty of motivation here as this is practically a playoff game for the Saints, with Carolina breathing down their necks and a chance at home field throughout if they can get the win here. There might also be a revenge factor at play as the Saints' last visit to Seattle was a playoff loss as a heavy favorite three seasons ago. The Saints also get Sproles back, who is essential as the short passing game with him is pretty much their equivalent of a running game.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Since Thursday night games became a staple of the schedule, Thanksgiving week underdogs who played the Thursday night game the previous week have a 5-3 straight up record.
Record:
ATS 8-4
ML 5-7 +215
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