Of the twelve games on Sunday, only two have spreads that are within a FG and there are four games with spreads greater than a TD. The JAC@HOU game also features a spread of 15 points, the second largest so far this season.
Big NFL Spreads are tough because there truly is a lot of parity in the league, and points are at a premium in the league. Most heavily favored teams will often have high powered offenses that are capable of generating points in a short amount of time. However, I feel that the focus should really be on defense when looking at big spreads.
A good and proud defense will be one that still fights hard at the end of a game to prevent that backdoor cover that many bettors are so afraid of. A good defense will also be able to make up for an off day for the offense by shortening the field.
A look at Sunday's big spreads will show that there is only one game featuring an elite defense, and that is Houston. Sure the line is almost a TD more than the ones in the other games, but I believe that is more a reflection of Jacksonville being much worse than San Diego, Cleveland, and Arizona.
Another interesting team to look at is the Atlanta Falcons. While both Dallas and Denver give up fewer yards per game, Atlanta is the only other team giving up less than 20 points per game. Given Atlanta's no huddle offense, I think that says a lot about their defensive prowess. Combine that with Arizona's still horrible offensive line, and I think Atlanta is worth a play too.
Picks:
JAC@HOU
HOU -15
ARZ@ATL
ATL -9.5
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