I don't think anyone saw the Dallas sweep of the Lakers coming, but I did pick one of the series exactly right. Oklahoma City was my pre-playoff pick, but I really can't say that any of these four teams look like a champion to me. I think that whichever one of these four teams steps up and plays at a level higher than they did in the previous rounds will take this.
Chicago vs. Miami
The two key questions for me are whether Chicago can generate offensive production down low, and whether one of Miami's shooters (not LeBron or Wade) can get hot. Miami's weakness remains on the interior, but Chicago does not really score down low on power. Boozer is more of a jump shooter while Noah is not a main offensive option, even though I expect he will get many hustle rebounds. Atlanta could not handle Chicago's tenacious defense, but a large part of that was that Atlanta's guards and forwards were not good passers out of the double team. LeBron and Wade are both terrific passers, so it will come down to whether their shooters will make those open shots off the double teams. I will also be curious who Miami uses to defend Derrick Rose. I highly doubt Bibby can keep Rose in front of him, and I think the most effective option will probably be Wade.
Prediction: Chicago in 7
Dallas vs. Oklahoma City
After watching the Thunder's series with Memphis, I don't think they're ready yet. While Westbrook is capable of doing amazing things, I don't think his decision-making is there yet, and I think that without a perfect series, Oklahoma City can't win. Dallas is so deep and has so much firepower that the Thunder will have to keep pace with the scoring, and not just rely on solid defense. The problem is that Perkins and Ibaka can be offensive liabilities, and it just won't be enough in my opinion.
Prediction: Dallas in 6