Monday, June 30, 2008

Value bet of the day (VBOTD)

Under 8.5

Stults has been sensational in his first two stints since they made him a starter while Oswalt has quietly put together 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. Combine that with the Dodgers having played 7 straight unders and the Astros having played 7 unders in their last 9, and 8.5 looks like a lot of runs.

Under 9.5

David Bush has pitched 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings and sports a .9 WHIP in his last 3 starts while Doug Davis has pitched 6 quality starts in his last 8 outings. Milwaukee has also played under in 5 of their last 6 outings, but perhaps the strangest thing is that 9.5 is the most runs in a total line for Arizona in their last 10 games, even though Arizona has pushed or gone under the total in 9 of those 10 games. I don't see any reason to fight the trend here.

Running total: +5
Record: 9-8

Saturday, June 28, 2008

No value no bets

If you're wondering why I haven't posted any value bet picks, it's because there really haven't been any in a while. There are so-so bets and some decent bets, but nothing that stands out in value of late. Hopefully that will change after the all-star break.

In other news, although I haven't followed it at all, it seems we're stuck with the UIGEA. Story here

As for myself, I've ballooned in weight to new highs from the Vegas trip and the stress from work. I am not trading well, and can't seem to get my head together for 3 days straight. The market is up and down and merciless towards any mistakes right now. So I'm back to another diet just to get my weight back to at least manageable. Hope the second half of the year will be better for me and all my (what, 3?) readers.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

One more Vegas note

For those who plan to stay at the Bellagio. Internet access is about $14/day. But they don't have wireless. They charge $13 for an ethernet cable located in the minibar! So don't forget to bring your own ethernet cable!

VBOTD (value bet of the day)

Under 8

King Felix hasn't given up an earned run in his last three starts while Scott Olsen also has a nice streak of 3 consecutive quality starts. Neither team has been hitting particularly well, especially Seattle which has just managed more than 3 runs once in its last 9 games.

Running total: +115
Record: 9-7

Vegas baby Vegas

Just came back from a 4 day weekend in Las Vegas for a friend's bachelor party.

The last time I went to Vegas, I was at the Hilton, and there weren't as many people. This time, I stayed at the Bellagio and there was a blackjack tournament going on as well as the World Series of Poker. There were so many people in fact that the Bellagio was overbooked for Thursday and Friday night from what I heard. So this is the real Vegas. Besides seeing some poker names and people who'd been televised in the World Series of Blackjack, the only recognizable face I saw was Dog the bounty hunter.

The food in the smaller Bellagio restaurants were nice and not as crazily overpriced as I would have imagined. We only ate the lunch buffet so it wasn't the gourmet spread, but the food was still good in quality. For dinner, we ate at L'atelier de Joel Robuchon (people who know me know how much I love it) twice and Craftsteak once for our group dinners. Both have branches in NYC, so it wasn't as much destination dining for me. L'atelier was superb on both occasions, the highlights being all the soups, including a gazpacho, a lobster vichyssois, and an asparagus soup. Craftsteak was underwhelming, but looking back, this could have been a result of ordering a group menu.

We also had the tartare showdown, comparing the steak tartare at Craftsteak, Red Square, and L'atelier. My vote went for Red Square, which had the best simple beef flavor and the best texture. Red Square was also one of the few places where we found hangar one vodka. For those who've never had it, please try it if you ever come across it, it'll usually be in a high class restaurant/bar. Red Square actually had 240 different kinds of Vodka, and I was surprised to find out that it was in the China Grill Management umbrella.

There was more to the weekend than just food, but food is all I'm going to write about. ;-) I do expect to be back soon though. There's just so much out there. The only other thing is that it was way too hot and dry. As I was standing by the pool, I could literally feel the moisture getting sucked out of me and I raced back indoors as quickly as I could.

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Value Bet of the Day (VBOTD)

Under 9

Both pitchers have been pitching very well of late, and Wandy Rodriguez has always sported one of the widest splits among starters, pitching much much better at home. Neither offense has been cranking, and Houston's in particular was abysmal before this series. 9 is a great value when Wandy pitching at home is equivalent to many name pitchers.

Running total: +15
Record: 8-7

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Everyone who bet on Big Brown

... got what they deserved. To bet a horse with a possible injury situation that has never run a mile and a half and is racing for the third time in 5 weeks down to unbackable odds is just mind-boggling. 1-4? Lunacy.

If I had to guess, my guess is an irregular heartbeat. The horse certainly didn't bleed out, but I don't think it's internal bleeding either. From what Desormeaux said, there were a couple times early that the horse wanted to go, so my guess is it wasn't just the horse not wanting to run the race today. I'm sure there will be a full set of tests run and we'll hear about it on ESPN soon.

My only disappointment from this race was that had he won it, I would have been able to bet heavily against him the first time he ran against older horses. This crop of 3 year olds is just not that good. While his Derby win was indeed very impressive, he's definitely no Curlin.

Value Bet of the Day

... is not going to be Big Brown.
Holy cow with Casino Drive withdrawing I can't imagine what odds Big Brown's going to have. No value whatsoever.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

VBOTD (Value bet of the day)

Under 10.5 -120

Under 9.5 -115

Both league ERA leaders are in games with relatively high total lines, yet the opposing pitchers aren't horrible either. A lot of runs have been scored in the Cleveland-Texas series so far, so I'm sure the lack of bullpen depth was a big factor in the line. However, both Lee and Ponson have shown the ability to go deep this season, and if just one of them pitch to their best, I can't see as many as 11 runs. As for the Cinci-Philly game, Volquez meets the Phillies for the first time since his first start of the season, but in that time he still hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs in an outing. Both games so far in this series have played under, and Myers pitches solidly at home.

Running total: +35
Record: 7-6