Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 10 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Didn't have a pick last week as there were no underdogs I liked. So for this week going to throw one in here that's really outside the box

Underdog of the Week:
DAL vs JAC (in London)
Line:
JAC +7
JAC +270 ML

It's a game at night in London, ,so who knows. But the Jaguars have certainly been playing more competitively of late. And when you add in all the travel to a running back who's already been used so much this season in Murray and a QB who might not be at 100% in Romo, this could be an easy situational upset.

Record:
ATS 2-5
ML 2-5 -180

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 8 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Finally had a winner last week, and the first since week 1. Can't believe we're almost at the half-way point of the season. The NFL season has gone by so quickly, and the NBA is starting in less than a week!

Underdog of the Week:
SD @ DEN
Line:
SD +8.5
SD +320 ML

While I usually wait until the weekend to post my pick, there just weren't any underdogs I liked on Sunday. So I'm picking the Chargers on Thursday night even though I picked them to be upset last week and said that the previous two weeks was a sign that they aren't actually as dominant as some of their wins so far this season may have suggested. At the same time, Denver is rolling again, now that all their receivers are back.

So why do I like the Chargers here? It's not really for football reasons. First off, the spread is too big. Since Manning joined the Broncos, the Chargers have lost to the Broncos by more than 8 points just once, and that was a game when they led 24-0 at the half. Another thing I'm looking at is that the Broncos have both covered the spread and went over the total in their last 3 games. In fact, during Manning's tenure with the Broncos, Denver has done exactly that almost 40% of the time, well above the 25% as expected by random chance. But there is only one game tonight and it is in prime time. This is the first game between contenders on Thursday night football all year. Everyone will be watching this game and casual players love parlaying the favorite and the over. Do you really think Vegas would offer up such an easy layup?

Record:
ATS 2-4
ML 2-4 -80

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 7 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Didn't make an underdog pick last week, but not going to compound the problem again by picking two this week. After a long losing streak, let's try to get a winner on the board first.

Underdog of the Week:
KC @ SD
Line:
KC +4
KC +170 ML

Last season in week 7, I focused on division games as those always provide good motivation for the teams. This week, there are only three division games, and this one seems to be the most competitive. I think the Chargers' narrow win last week's was a sign that they aren't actually as dominant as some of their wins so far this season (over the Jets and Jaguars) may have suggested. Except for their opening week loss to the Titans, the Chiefs have actually played some very competitive games against good teams, and are probably being underrated by the public.

Record:
ATS 1-4
ML 1-4 -250

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 5 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Last week I picked against the Colts and that didn't end well. Hopefully it goes better this week. After a tough week 1 loss to the Bengals, a team that in retrospect might be the best in the NFL, the Ravens have pulled off three straight wins. Even with another incredible showing, the Colts are still 2-2 with only wins against the Jaguars and the Charlie Whitehurst-led Titans. It wouldn't surprise me if this game came down to one of those Andrew Luck come from behind drives that he's so good at, but even then the Ravens should still cover.

Underdog of the Week:
BAL @ IND
Line:
BAL +3.5
BAL + ML

Record:
ATS 1-3
ML 1-3 -150

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 4 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Last year for week 4 I tried to fade winless teams that were favored. This year, there are no winless teams that are favored. There is, however, a 1-2 team that is favored by a touchdown, so I'll go with that. The Colts under Andrew Luck have been famous for many come from behind victories, but also for its tendency to be inconsistent. In the end, they've lost 2 of 3 games and have only beaten the Jaguars. Coming off that dominating victory, my guess is people are overrating this team.

UnderdogS of the Week:
TEN @ IND
Line:
TEN +7
TEN +285 ML

Record:
ATS 1-2
ML 1-2 -50

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 3 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

I was away at a wedding last week so didn't have any picks up, but I'm making up for it by picking two underdogs this week. Last year during week 3, I looked at 2-0 teams that were still underdogs. The one that stands out to me this week is Houston playing at the NY Giants. The Giants have looked terrible so far, and it looks unlikely that the Giants will get their offense together against this Texans defense. In fact, I think the Giants are even worse than most people think, which leads to my second underdog pick, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are playing a Detroit team that I think is being overrated based on beating up a very poor Giants team in week 1. People think this will be a shootout, but I'm not sure Detroit's offense can keep up.

UnderdogS of the Week:
HOU @ NYG
Line:
HOU +1
HOU +105 ML

GB @ DET
Line:
GB +1
GB +EV ML

Record:
ATS 1-0
ML 1-0 +150

2014-2015 Season Week 1 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

I quite enjoyed doing these posts last season, so I'm going to try to keep it up this season as well. For those who didn't read last season's underdog series, you can find those posts with the label NFLUnderdog13. Even though in general I tried to get each week's post up before the Thursday night game, I think this season I'm going to just try to get it out by Sunday morning.

Underdog of the Week:
MIN @ STL
Line:
MIN +3 with reduced juice
MIN +150 ML

I started last season off with an outright win, and looking back, this is what I wrote: "[I] found that teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite vulnerable. Furthermore, over the past 5 seasons, at least one new coach won outright in an upset." That describes this Vikings at Rams game to a tee. The Rams surprised a lot of folks last year with some big upset wins, but were still pretty inconsistent. The Vikings also have a new coach who's supposed to be defense-oriented and disciplined, which should help this Minnesota team tremendously. Note that I probably would have made this pick even if Bradford were starting for the Rams.

Good luck and enjoy football season everyone!