The Borgata in Atlantic City (gambling, entertainment)

I haven't been to Atlantic City in years, but since I've been going to casinos more frequently these days, decided to give it a chance as they're comping me rooms during the summer. Went for a quick one night stay with a friend.


The nice view from the 43rd (top) floor

The view from our room on the top floor was about the only thing I liked about my visit. And it wasn't even that I'm pissed that I lost money or something like that, I was actually up slightly for the trip.

One of my main complaints is that I just don't like all the little charges here and there. I don't know if this has always been a Borgata thing, or if it's basically just an MGM thing that happens at all their properties. Let's start from the beginning. Parking is not free. At least I have a comp for free parking. I get to my room and I see that the wifi password was written on my room number packet. I'm about to sign on when I decide, "let me just look through the terms of service". There it is, wifi charge. Screw that. I'm barely in the room, not paying for wifi. Then when I check out, it turns out that my room comp does not cover resort fees. So I use my express comps to pay for it. Honestly all of this is bullshit. I've been getting comped to nearby casinos all summer, and NONE of them have charged for parking, wifi, or resorts fees (although this last one may be a NJ thing).

Well, if the casino is a good time, a few extra charges here and there isn't a deal breaker. Except the casino wasn't great either. First of all, the place is big, not well-organized, and not well-labeled. I spent a lot of time getting lost and just walking. The seats felt old and even where there wasn't any smoking that stench was still hanging around. One thing I found really annoying was that I couldn't even play one hand without them taking my player's card and logging it. All I wanted to do was play one hand and use up my match play before dinner, and it ended up taking like 5 minutes.

This whole bigger, older, and slower thing was evident in the poker room too. The poker room is huge, but with primarily open seating, felt a bit chaotic. The tables and chairs felt old and worn, while none of the USB chargers I tried at my table worked. There is no rake here, players pay for time. While to a lot of players that sounds great, what happens is there is no incentive on the casino's end to speed up the pace of the game. I was there for probably 7 hours and in that entire time there was only one dealer who dealt at a speed equivalent to the other casino poker rooms I've played at the past couple of months. Sure, I probably paid less in time than I would have in rake, but not getting as many hands in makes the game a lot less enjoyable (and profitable).

The sports/racebook was super crowded, practically standing room only as all the main sitting areas (with personal TVs) were filled with old men and their daily racing forms. It's clearly designed (the way it looked that day anyway) as a racebook and I can't imagine it being a good place to watch big sporting events. Although if you're a horse racing degen who's betting 10 races per track across 5 tracks it's probably a really good time.

Again, a large part of my dissatisfaction is probably just personal preference. I view gambling as an entertainment/service industry and I feel smaller, more local businesses are better at that. I'm not thrilled with MGM buying more and more properties and their corporate nature, although they do send me plenty of comp offers now and then.

Of Course It Went to OT: What Happened to the Superbowl at the Turn of the Millennium? (sport, gambling)

There's really not much point to studying stats and trends with very few data points. But when it comes to the NFL and the Superbowl, it's fun to think about. Here were some stats I was looking at before tonight's amazing game.

Did you know that before the 21st Century, favorites covered 23 of 34 (68%) Superbowls while favorites have only covered 4 of 15 (27%) Superbowls since the turn of the millennium? Superbowl XXXIV played in the year 2000 was a push and Superbowl XLIX in 2015 was a pick'em.

What about the fact that in the 2000's, of the 7 times a regular season MVP played in the Superbowl, none of them won or even covered the spread? The list includes Cam Newton, Peyton Manning (x2), Tom Brady, Shaun Alexander, Rich Gannon, Marshall Faulk/Kurt Warner depending on AP or PFWA. Before 2000? AP MVPs covered 9 of 16 times.

Between the underdog trend and the 0-for MVP trend, of course it went to OT.

Obviously, choosing 2000 as the divide is also completely random. But it's interesting to wonder if something actually changed in the league, considering the 2001 Superbowl was the first Brady Belichick Superbowl as well as the biggest upset in Superbowl history.

In the end, I took the Pats. The idea that regular season MVPs are 0-8 against the spread in the Superbowl amused me.

The Breeders' Cup 2015 (horseracing, sport, gambling)

Did you know the Breeders' Cup was happening this weekend?

I didn't, until I came across a brief mention of it on one of the sports forums that I read.

After all, American Pharoah turned out to not be the superhorse the media hyped him up to be, and so the mainstream media is off to chase whatever other fad might get them pageviews and clicks. Which is a bit of a shame since the field for this year's Classic is actually relatively weak, and could easily have served as a great coronation for American Pharoah. Regardless, American Pharoah will probably still dominate whatever media coverage remains, even though he shouldn't.

For what will probably be the same price payout, any money you want to bet on American Pharoah to win should be spent on Golden Horn. If American Pharoah were to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Golden Horn were to have retired after the L'Arc de Triomphe, Golden Horn would still have my vote for horse of the year. That's how much this horse has accomplished this year. After winning the Epsom Derby in June, Golden Horn has taken on Group One horses of all ages, unlike American Pharoah who has yet to run against older horses. Like American Pharoah, Golden Horn also suffered an upset defeat in August. But since then, the horse has already won two more Group One races, including what is arguably Europe's biggest weight-for-age race in the L'Arc de Triomphe.

Of course there are risks. This will be his 8th race of the year, and the last time an Arc winner came to run in the Breeders' Cup, Dylan Thomas disappointed. But given that both American Pharoah and Golden Horn will be heavy odds-on favorites, I'd rather have my money on the truly proven champion.

2015-2016 NFL Week 2 Daily Fantasy Sleepers (sport, gambling)

Whether it be chalk plays or value plays, there's plenty of advice out there regarding skill position players. So I'll focus on the other positions, the ones that other people believe are mostly random, but in fact weigh in heavily as to who wins in daily fantasy.

As always, if you do decide to give daily fantasy sports a try, please use my referral links below:
Fanduel
DraftKings

Kicker - Dan Bailey (FD $5000)
Even without Dez Bryant, the Cowboys should be able to move the ball with their stacked offensive line, especially against this Eagles defense. Last season, Bailey was significantly better on the road than at home, and I expect that to continue today against Chip Kelly's "bend but don't break" attitude on defense.

Defense - Washington Redskins (DK $2700, FD $4100, Yahoo $11)
It's weird picking the Redskins for anything, let alone against a team that put up over 30 points against the vaunted Seahawks defense. But Washington has a stout rushing defense, and I don't trust the Rams offense on the road. Besides, even in that week 1 upset victory, St Louis turned the ball over 3 times.

Random Sleeper - Chris Johnson (DK $3800, FD $5700, Yahoo $10)
Everyone was targeting Eddie Lacy against the Bears in week 1. This week gives us a super cheap running back against that same defense, who will get a bulk of the work with Ellington out and a rookie backing him up.

Good luck to all!

First Week of 2015 NFL Daily Fantasy (sport, gambling)

First of all, if any readers haven't signed up for daily fantasy sites yet, please do so through my referral links. By doing so, you support me without losing out on anything for yourself.
Fanduel
DraftKings

Week 1 Performance

I was aiming for the top prizes, so I fielded about 50+ teams (usually various combinations of core players I liked), spearheaded by 4 different quarterbacks. Unfortunately, none of the quarterbacks performed particularly well (Ryan, Cutler, Flacco, Eli). It was actually the peripheral positions that salvaged my week from being a complete loss, with tight end Jason Witten, kicker Brandon McManus, and splitting the defense between the Rams and the Titans. I ended up losing about 60% of my entries, which seemed about right.

Lessons From Week 1

1. The top heavy tournament payouts means that the cash line returns a paltry 150-160% of entry fees rather than a more standard number closer to 2x.

2. DraftKings salaries are generally softer by design. As they continue to focus on a 500k entrant "millionaire maker", the salaries have to be lower than a more properly priced game because they have to increase the number of possible combinations.

3. The toughest salaries are on Yahoo. I don't really trust Yahoo's team, so I'll attribute it to a lack of design. The salaries are priced in a similar fashion to Fanduel's, except you have to fit in an extra flex spot like on DraftKings. Tight ends were also priced much more in line with wide receivers, meaning that you pretty much have to pick at least two underdog/longshot players and have one of them hit to field a competitive team.

4. Look out for second versions of large Fanduel tournaments. Fanduel filled its $5 230k entrant contest by Thursday, and started another one. The second one ended up with only 180k entrants, so if you canceled your entries in the first contest to enter the second contest, you theoretically had a much better chance to win something.

Looking Forward to Week 2

It's a bit too early to really study players, but I do think I will switch back to playing just one team instead of a large number, focusing primarily on cash games (50/50s, double ups) and tossing in the occasional GPP ticket.

Monday Night Effect

Because salaries come out for the subsequent week's games prior to Monday night games, Monday night performances are not factored into those salary calculations. If you end up playing a cash game on DraftKings, you pretty much have to roster Carlos Hyde at $5100. On Fanduel it's a little more debateable at $7100, but he'll likely have a high ownership percentage regardless.

Catch Up (Entertainment, Food, Gambling, Sport, Rambling)

It's been a while since I last wrote a post, so I figured I'd give an update on what I've been doing.

New Hobbies

Watching fighting games
Even though I don't play any of them, I do find them very entertaining to watch, especially the high level contests. So lately I've not only caught up on past matches through Youtube, I'll actually watch live streaming on Twitch as well. This all culminated in me watching the live stream of an entire weekend's worth of EVO, which is the biggest fighting game tournament in the world, held every year in Las Vegas. It was a ridiculous display of skill and drama, packed with excitement, and honestly more entertaining for me than the NBA finals. My favorite games to watch are Ultra Street Fighter IV (where the biggest prize money is) and Mortal Kombat X (which is only a few months old but has a huge following). I really think the fighting game scene is going to blow up big time, and some would say it already has considering there were 250k concurrent live viewers at the championship's peak, even though the prize pools were below $100k, compared to League of Legends and Defense of the Ancients which boast multi-million dollar prize pools.

Daily fantasy sports
I've always played a good deal of daily fantasy sports, but the past month or so I've really been into the day-to-day grind of the MLB season. I'm mostly trying to develop a model for it and plan to play strictly off the model. It hasn't been going well financially, but it's still pretty fun. It's kind of developed into a daily routine now where I download some data into Google Docs, then read it into R to do my analysis. The model has shown a lot of promise, but it hasn't won consistently, so I'm thinking of moving on to NFL analysis very soon in anticipation of the new season starting.

Older Hobbies

Food
I haven't really been out to many restaurants. I haven't really exercised in the past half year due to a calf injury, and have ballooned in weight so I'm trying to get back in shape starting with my diet. I did have an excellent dinner at EMP a while back, but none of the main "story" dishes were new so I didn't write up the meal. I also had a couple of stellar meals at 15 East, but as beloved chef Masato Shimizu is leaving the country, there's no hurry to write a post on it as the reader won't be able to enjoy the experience as well.

Poker
I'd been playing in a couple of regular home games, but now that summer is here, everyone's enjoying the outdoors instead. I also haven't followed the poker scene at all, except for coming across a couple of WSOP headlines.

Bridge
I've kept up with bridge even less, to the extent that I didn't even know when and where this summer's nationals were being held. I continue to play in the interclub bridge league, but that's been on hiatus for the summer and won't resume till September.

TV/Anime
My DVR continues to be full, and I still watch a good amount of anime (3-5 per season last few seasons), but it feels like there's just too much entertainment media (much of it good) out there nowadays. And I don't even have a Netflix subscription!

So that's a pretty good snapshot of how things have been. I believe that I will have a couple of food posts up soon when I get around to it, and this NFL season perhaps I'll start writing some daily fantasy posts instead of the previous gambling posts. Enjoy the summer, everyone!

2014-2015 NBA Finals Preview (sport, gambling)

Umm... not much to say here really. I mean, the only real arguments for Cleveland are LeBron and experience. Wait, the only guys with Finals experience on the Cavs are actually Mike Miller, James Jones, and Kendrick Perkins. Scratch that. I mean, if you compare this Cleveland team to his Miami teams, you can say that Kyrie is an upgrade over the final years with Wade. But they don't even have an equivalent of Chris Bosh. I'm really trying here but I just can't find any real reason to pick the Cavaliers. They came out of a very weak Eastern conference, where Chicago just kind of imploded and Atlanta ran into injuries to key players.

Bottom line. Warriors -230 for the series is great value. Warriors in 4 (+550) and Warriors in 5 (+180) are also worth taking a look at. I kind of see this series ending up the same way as last year's Spurs-Heat series.

Memorial Day Ramblings (sport, gambling, food)

Memorial Day, the prototypical American summer holiday. Most Americans are expected to be either on the road, having a backyard barbecue, or at a baseball game. For the rest of us, there's not much else going on. Only one NHL and one NBA game on tonight. The French Open just started, and while it's prone to early upsets, the first week of a major is often just going through the motions.

So let's focus on baseball, since that seems to be the "sport" with the most exposure today. The Yankees have lost 9 of their last 10, don't have Ellsbury, couldn't get it up to win last night when they were honoring Bernie Williams, and are facing the best team in baseball (by run differential). So why are they -130 favorites? The funny thing is, though, if you hop onto any of the major sports betting forums, there will be a fair share of posts suggesting that this Royals pick is too easy and that this has to be a trap game. Gamblers are a strange bunch. I'm gonna go with the Royals here, and think that the line is skewed because the Yankees fans, and their much bigger wallets, are supporting their team now that they have a day off to actually watch them. And then they'll realize the error of their ways.

I know I haven't posted any food/restaurant reviews in a while, and in fact I have a blog post from a meal back in February that really should have been put up long ago. So I'm going to go for a compromise here, and shorten my reviews so that I can at least put some posts up in the near future, and go from there. Blogging as an unpaid hobby is always tough. I've seen so many blogs, especially those of a personal nature, just stop updating. 

2014-2015 NBA Playoffs Conference Finals Preview (sport, gambling)

We didn't take the quickest road to get there, but we ended up with the top seeds in each conference playing each other. I think this is a good thing considering how often people say that the regular season is meaningless in the NBA.

Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) at Atlanta Hawks (1)
As if Mozgov wasn't sitting on the bench enough, he should get very little playing time against this Hawks team filled with stretch big men who can shoot. So a lot of the burden will fall on LeBron, like it usually has throughout his career, as he will anchor almost all their small ball lineups. But we've seen this LeBron vs an all-around team matchup before. It didn't work well against the Celtics and Pistons when he was younger, and it didn't work well against the Spurs either. That means Kyrie Irving needs to really deliver for the Cavs to pull this one out. Then again, the most pivotal player in the series might be Kyle Korver. I don't think Atlanta will pull out tight, close games against the Cavs like the way they did against the Wizards, so Korver's ability to keep the Atlanta offense going throughout the game will be key.

Western Conference

Houston Rockets (2) at Golden State Warriors (1)
I was one of many who thought the Clippers would easily dispatch the Rockets, but guys stepped up and the Rockets managed a well earned comeback from a 3-1 deficit. Now they face a team that they couldn't beat even once during the regular season, and I just don't think lightning strikes twice. The Warriors should win easily.

2014-2015 NBA Playoffs Round 2 Preview (sport, gambling)

That Game 7 between the Spurs and the Clippers might have been the most entertaining non-Finals NBA game I've ever watched in real time. It was a crazy back and forth affair, and I don't think any team managed to get ahead by more than 6 points in the second half or hold a lead for more than a few minutes. Even if the grind of the long season makes you at best a casual NBA fan, the playoffs are definitely worth tuning in for.

Eastern Conference

Washington Wizards (5) at Atlanta Hawks (1)
Even with the great upset win on Sunday, I still think this series will go to Atlanta. This is just not a very good matchup for the Wizards, especially with Bradley Beal not being anywhere close to where he was last year. The Wizards' strength is their interior size and defense, and Atlanta essentially negates that with their spacing and shooting. The problem with that approach, of course, is that you will lose some games where you just go cold. The Hawks clearly relied too much on the three point shot at the tail end of game 1, but they were also just extremely unlucky with shots not going in. I expect the series to go to game 7, but what happens then will come down to whether those shots go in during that one game.

Chicago Bulls (3) at Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Cleveland was never a very deep team to begin, so I don't think they can overcome the loss of Kevin Love. Without Kevin Love, they can't field an efficient small ball lineup, and their bigs Mozgov and Thompson are just way outclassed by Noah and Gasol. I think the Cavaliers win one, maybe two games at the most in this series, depending on how often Kyrie can go off.

Western Conference

Memphis Grizzlies (4) at Golden State Warriors (1)
A nightmare matchup for the Grizzlies, as Golden State is filled with players whose shots can go in no matter how good your defense is, while the Grizzlies are full of guys who aren't guaranteed to make open jump shots. Without Mike Conley, I wouldn't be surprised if this series ended in a sweep, but I think Warriors in 5 is the safe bet.

Los Angeles Clippers (3) at Houston Rockets (2)
Like I said in my first round preview, this is as prepared a Clippers team as any since the CP3 trade. The time spent without CP3 the past two seasons has made Blake Griffin into a superstar that can single-handedly carry this team of shooters, while the time spent without Blake has forced DeAndre Jordan into maturing his game. They'll still need Chris Paul, but winning the first game allows them to give him much more rest. With DeAndre Jordan now competitive against a past-his-prime Dwight Howard, James Harden just has too much of a burden to carry, surrounded by players well past their prime who aren't great shooters. This series should also go 5, depending on how much rest CP3 needs.

2014-2015 NBA Playoffs Round 1 Preview (sport, gambling)

Well, not sure how much of a preview this is since I couldn't get it out in time before the first weekend of the playoffs, but I'll just add in my thoughts based on what I thought going in and what we saw in the first set of games.

Eastern Conference

Brooklyn Nets (8) at Atlanta Hawks (1)
Someone told me an interesting stat last week going into the start of the playoffs. No one on the Hawks had scored more than 35 points in a game all season, and the only two other teams in NBA history to have that happen both won less than 20 games whereas Atlanta won 60 games this season. The good and the bad of this team-oriented approach showed itself in the first game against the Nets. With Milsap and Horford both dealing with nagging injuries, Atlanta did not look like a team that won 60 games in the regular season. However, their bench is very deep and works well enough within the system. Brooklyn just doesn't have the one true star who can take advantage of such a situation, so I expect this series to go 4-1 in favor of the Hawks, with the Nets needing a huge game from either Joe Johnson or Brook Lopez to steal one. Atlanta's main concern during this series is to try to get everyone healthy for the next round.

Boston Celtics (7) at Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
No matter how good of a coach Stevens is, the Cavs are just too talented and should sweep this series. The only thing the Cavs should be concerned about is getting Love and Irving some good playoff experience, so in my opinion it would actually work out better for them if the games were close, especially up in Boston.

Milwaukee Bucks (6) at Chicago Bulls (3)
This is just a horrible matchup for the Bucks, as they've struggled against big men all season, and Chicago has two of the best in the game in Noah and Pau Gasol. This was evident in the first game as Chicago outrebounded Milwaukee 52-41, even though much of the spotlight was on the two Bulls guards who scored over 20 points each. The real thing to look for here is whether the Bulls will sweep as they're supposed to. With a taskmaster such as Tom Thibodeau as their head coach, it'll be clear if they're ready to go deep based on whether they take care of business or are sloppy (they committed 19 turnovers in game 1).

Washington Wizards (5) at Toronto Raptors (4)
I expected this to be the closest series of the first round, and game 1 did not disappoint. While this could in theory still go either way, I think the Wizards will pull it out with their underrated defense. I feel they have more of an identity as a team and the veteran experience of Paul Pierce goes a long way. One of the more interesting things I noticed was that both Marcin Gortat and Jonas Valanciunas, two very capable centers, only played 26 and 24 minutes respectively in an overtime game. This should also be to Washington's advantage as I think they have a deeper and more suitable bench for small ball. After stealing game 1, Wizards should win in 6 if not 5.

Western Conference

New Orleans Pelicans (8) at Golden State Warriors (1)
Even though the Pelicans sneaking into the playoffs was a nice feel good story, they are completely outclassed here by the Warriors who play tremendous basketball as a team, and yet are capable of being carried in stretches by EITHER Curry or Thompson getting hot. But what really separates this Warriors team from previous years' versions is a healthy Bogut, who not only gives them a capable rim protector, but works as a very useful cog in that offense. This will be an easy sweep.

Dallas Mavericks (7) at Houston Rockets (2)
I expect this to be a much closer series than any of the individual game scores would indicate. Both teams are very good at home, and I expect this series to go to 7 games unless someone steals one on the road. I also expect most of the games to go over the over/under lines, as both teams are probably more concerned about playing their own offensive games than really stopping or slowing down the other team.

San Antonio Spurs (6) at Los Angeles Clippers (3)
I think the writing was on the wall when the Spurs couldn't win that last game of the season and fell from a 2 seed all the way down to a 6 seed. They should still play very well at home, but until Leonard is ready to really step up and take the position of the main guy on that Spurs team, I don't see them going back to the Finals any time soon. The Clippers, on the other hand, have slowly built up to this point where they are probably as competitive at the highest level as they've ever been. The absence of CP3 and Griffin at different times last season and this season have helped DeAndre Jordan a lot, and have made them a more versatile team than people give them credit for. I expect the Clippers to win this in 6 or 7.

Portland Trailblazers (5) at Memphis Grizzlies (4)
The past two regular seasons, Portland has been true to their name, coming out of the gate strong. And yet both seasons it seems they just kind of limped into the playoffs. The current Trailblazer regime has a history of playing their starters a lot of minutes, and with Wes Matthews out, they look completely out of gas. It doesn't help that Memphis still has one of the best team defenses in the game and are used to the grind. This series really shouldn't be close, but Portland should win one or two games just from Memphis' inability to consistently score.

2014-2015 NFL Season Superbowl Pick (sport, gambling)

Honestly, I haven't really paid much attention to all the pre-Superbowl stuff going on the last two weeks. I made up my mind a while back that the Patriots are my Superbowl pick, and I think the deflate-gate thing is beyond stupid.

For me, any single game team sporting event where both sides are given enough time to prepare will always come down to matchups. While Seattle's defense matched up perfectly against Denver's passing game last year, the Patriots' tight end dominated short passing game will neutralize much of Seattle's advantage on defense. On the other side of the ball, I think the Patriots will commit to stacking the box against the Seattle running game, and let Seattle try to beat them one-on-one in the passing game against Revis Island. I just don't see Seattle sustaining drives against that kind of defense.

While there are plenty of well known names and personalities on display in this Superbowl, I believe the players to watch are the ones whom many casual fans haven't heard much about.

Tim Wright (TE, Pats)
Unless you're a Patriots fan or an avid daily fantasy football player, chances are you haven't heard of Tim Wright. Furthering that anonymity is the fact that he has played just 8 snaps so far in the postseason. In fact, according to an NBCSports article, some casino in Las Vegas is offering a Tim Wright receiving yards prop bet with a line set at half a yard. This line is so ridiculous in my view that I suggest anyone within driving distance of said casino to go down and put some money on that over.

Seattle has been weak against tight ends all season, especially in comparison to their performance against wide receivers in general. Add to that Belichick's willingness to play multiple TE sets, the short passing game, and the need for extra blocking bodies, I think Tim Wright will definitely have a role in this game, and it wouldn't surprise me if he scored a TD with Gronk getting all the attention.

Robert Turbin (RB, Seahawks)
The only real household names on that Seahawk offense are Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, and both will be key points of focus for the Patriot's defense. Turbin will be important in offering a change of pace option in the running game. While Doug Baldwin is probably better than most people give him credit for in the passing game, Seattle will need to execute dump offs to Turbin and Lynch and hope for good YAC from both to sustain drives.

Overall, I think the Patriots win in a game where points will be hard to come by for both teams. According to the sportsbook director at the Wynn, it appears most of the money is coming in on the Patriots too.

Best bets:
The over on all Robert Turbin props, especially yardage ones. And on the off chance this game becomes a blowout in either direction, he'll benefit from garbage time too.

Lines per 5dimes:
R. Turbin rush attempts Over 4.5 +135
R. Turbin rushing yards Over 13.5 -120
R. Turbin receiving yards Over 8.5 +155
R. Turbin rush+receiving yds Ov 23 -120
R. Turbin has a reception YES -140

Good luck and enjoy the game everyone!

Happy 2015! (rambling, gambling)

I'm baaaack!

2014 was a very trying year for me, but I'm back and very much looking forward to 2015. It's unclear if I will write more, but I will try my best. In the meantime, I've changed the poll on the right sidebar to ask what you would like to see more of on this blog, so please vote!

I did say I'd be back before the NFL playoffs (just barely), so for this weekend's games, I like the under 37.5 in Carolina, and the Colts -3.5 in Indy. Good luck everyone, and have a happy new year!

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 10 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Didn't have a pick last week as there were no underdogs I liked. So for this week going to throw one in here that's really outside the box

Underdog of the Week:
DAL vs JAC (in London)
Line:
JAC +7
JAC +270 ML

It's a game at night in London, ,so who knows. But the Jaguars have certainly been playing more competitively of late. And when you add in all the travel to a running back who's already been used so much this season in Murray and a QB who might not be at 100% in Romo, this could be an easy situational upset.

Record:
ATS 2-5
ML 2-5 -180

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 8 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Finally had a winner last week, and the first since week 1. Can't believe we're almost at the half-way point of the season. The NFL season has gone by so quickly, and the NBA is starting in less than a week!

Underdog of the Week:
SD @ DEN
Line:
SD +8.5
SD +320 ML

While I usually wait until the weekend to post my pick, there just weren't any underdogs I liked on Sunday. So I'm picking the Chargers on Thursday night even though I picked them to be upset last week and said that the previous two weeks was a sign that they aren't actually as dominant as some of their wins so far this season may have suggested. At the same time, Denver is rolling again, now that all their receivers are back.

So why do I like the Chargers here? It's not really for football reasons. First off, the spread is too big. Since Manning joined the Broncos, the Chargers have lost to the Broncos by more than 8 points just once, and that was a game when they led 24-0 at the half. Another thing I'm looking at is that the Broncos have both covered the spread and went over the total in their last 3 games. In fact, during Manning's tenure with the Broncos, Denver has done exactly that almost 40% of the time, well above the 25% as expected by random chance. But there is only one game tonight and it is in prime time. This is the first game between contenders on Thursday night football all year. Everyone will be watching this game and casual players love parlaying the favorite and the over. Do you really think Vegas would offer up such an easy layup?

Record:
ATS 2-4
ML 2-4 -80

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 4 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Last year for week 4 I tried to fade winless teams that were favored. This year, there are no winless teams that are favored. There is, however, a 1-2 team that is favored by a touchdown, so I'll go with that. The Colts under Andrew Luck have been famous for many come from behind victories, but also for its tendency to be inconsistent. In the end, they've lost 2 of 3 games and have only beaten the Jaguars. Coming off that dominating victory, my guess is people are overrating this team.

UnderdogS of the Week:
TEN @ IND
Line:
TEN +7
TEN +285 ML

Record:
ATS 1-2
ML 1-2 -50

Underdog of the Week: 2014-2015 Season Week 3 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

I was away at a wedding last week so didn't have any picks up, but I'm making up for it by picking two underdogs this week. Last year during week 3, I looked at 2-0 teams that were still underdogs. The one that stands out to me this week is Houston playing at the NY Giants. The Giants have looked terrible so far, and it looks unlikely that the Giants will get their offense together against this Texans defense. In fact, I think the Giants are even worse than most people think, which leads to my second underdog pick, the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are playing a Detroit team that I think is being overrated based on beating up a very poor Giants team in week 1. People think this will be a shootout, but I'm not sure Detroit's offense can keep up.

UnderdogS of the Week:
HOU @ NYG
Line:
HOU +1
HOU +105 ML

GB @ DET
Line:
GB +1
GB +EV ML

Record:
ATS 1-0
ML 1-0 +150

2014-2015 Season Week 1 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog14)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

I quite enjoyed doing these posts last season, so I'm going to try to keep it up this season as well. For those who didn't read last season's underdog series, you can find those posts with the label NFLUnderdog13. Even though in general I tried to get each week's post up before the Thursday night game, I think this season I'm going to just try to get it out by Sunday morning.

Underdog of the Week:
MIN @ STL
Line:
MIN +3 with reduced juice
MIN +150 ML

I started last season off with an outright win, and looking back, this is what I wrote: "[I] found that teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite vulnerable. Furthermore, over the past 5 seasons, at least one new coach won outright in an upset." That describes this Vikings at Rams game to a tee. The Rams surprised a lot of folks last year with some big upset wins, but were still pretty inconsistent. The Vikings also have a new coach who's supposed to be defense-oriented and disciplined, which should help this Minnesota team tremendously. Note that I probably would have made this pick even if Bradford were starting for the Rams.

Good luck and enjoy football season everyone!

2013-2014 NBA Finals Recap (sport, gambling)

Some people may have already forgotten about it, but the San Antonio Spurs won this season's NBA championship only two weeks ago! It capped off what might have been the biggest weekend in modern sports history when factoring in the importance of the events played, with the NBA Finals, NHL Finals, US Open (golf), and World Cup all going on. That was followed by more World Cup action, the start of Wimbledon, as well as one of the most hyped NBA drafts in a long time. June has just been an incredible month for sports, and I wanted to wrap up my thoughts on the NBA Finals before the the finals of the World Cup and Wimbledon come along.

The series was rather anti-climactic, so there isn't much to analyze in more depth. Let's start by looking back at my predictions from my NBA Finals preview.

"Both are excellent coaches, and while Miami has the best player in the series, the Spurs are much deeper and will be more pliable for different coaching strategies. I give the edge to the Spurs here just because they have more options and looks they can go with."

That was pretty spot on. While last year featured an amazing back and forth chess match between the coaches, the Miami Heat just didn't have enough pieces for Spoelstra to fire back with.

"Prediction: San Antonio 4-3
Possible bets: Bet San Antonio to win the series 4-1. Current price around +375, which represents pretty good value. While the series seems pretty even, I can see San Antonio winning easily if their league-leading bench outperforms at home while they steal one on the road."

The series wasn't really that even, but this value bet did cash as the Spurs had 9 players who consistently made significant contributions throughout the series.

"The Key Players (who will need to step up): Dwyane Wade, Boris Diaw, Rashard Lewis"

The player who obviously stood out was Diaw, who made his way into the starting lineup midway through the series and almost had a triple double in one game. While Kawhi Leonard deservedly won the Finals MVP, Diaw stepping up was the key piece that solidified that the Spurs could handle whatever Miami threw at them. Wade played well to start, but he was clearly gassed towards the end of the series. Diaw was an effective defender against him, as his height and reach advantage bothered Wade while Wade couldn't overpower him like LeBron could. Like Wade, Lewis shot well to start the series, but didn't do enough to make San Antonio change what they were doing.

Legacies
Last year, I wrote that "A 5th championship would probably have cemented [Tim Duncan's] status as the greatest player of his generation." I still think that this is true, and even though most of the attention was on the Spurs' pretty offense and Leonard and Diaw, Duncan played his usual consistently excellent game, averaging 15.4 points and 10 rebounds in only 33 minutes per game in the finals.

But in my mind, the one person whose legacy was truly cemented in this win was coach Gregg Popovich. He finally managed to do the one thing that Bill Belichick hasn't yet been able to. Much has been made about the similarities between the two, from leadership style to adherence to fitting players into their "system", and their terse interaction with the media. But to me, there's one similarity that stands out and separates them from all the other top coaches in their respective sports, and that is their ability to win using two completely different approaches. Both coaches accomplished their initial dynastic run of championships with defense-oriented teams, but then each of their respective leagues began to adopt rules that were clearly designed to increase scoring and favor the offense. In my mind, the ability of both coaches to then create scoring juggernauts to win is truly remarkable. But only Popovich has managed to come through with a championship after radically changing his team's style, edging him above other venerated coaches such as the aforementioned Belichick and Pat Riley (who won with the showtime Lakers, but also took the physical, defensive minded Knicks to the NBA Finals).

2013-2014 NBA Finals Preview (sport, gambling)

This is it. The NBA Finals rematch. This is the first rematch since the Lakers and Celtics battled it out in 2008 and 2010, and the first rematch in consecutive years since the Jazz lost to the Bulls back in 1998. Unlike last year, the Spurs come into this final with home court advantage. However, the advantage is smaller this year as the NBA has reverted back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format. Can the Spurs get revenge?

San Antonio Spurs (1) at Miami Heat (2)

The Matchup:
Both rosters are pretty much the same as last year's, and it seems like none of the Heat's off-season moves look to have panned out. The Spurs matched up well last year, and it'll really come down to what lineups each team uses. Due to a rash of mid-season injuries, the Spurs have experimented with many different lineups, which should be very advantageous for them.

The Key Players (who will need to step up):
Dwyane Wade - Wade shot an impressive 55% for the Indiana series, as Indiana just let him do his thing in the paint so Lance Stephenson could focus on what he does best. The Spurs will focus on keeping him out of the paint, and it will be up to Wade to hit mid range jumpers, something he didn't do well last year when he wasn't as healthy.

Boris Diaw - Diaw should get a fair amount of playing time as he provides interior size while being more mobile than Splitter. Diaw did a fairly good job defending LeBron last year, but LeBron is an even better shooter this year, and it'll be up to Diaw to step up his ability to both clog the lane and contest shots. His versatility will be very important against Miami's smaller lineups. He posted up a bit against Durant when OKC went small, and while LeBron is a much bigger body and tougher defender, Diaw should be able to post up successfully if they switch LeBron over to guard Parker or Leonard.

Rashard Lewis - While he may not provide the defense that Battier does, he provides three point shooting without giving up interior size. I have a feeling that Spoelstra will just go with the hot hand as the series unfolds, but Lewis' size provides versatility similar to what Diaw provides the Spurs. A lineup with both Lewis and Allen would have plenty of three point shooting without really giving up rebounding size.

The Coaching:
It seemed to me that both Popovich and Spoelstra clearly outcoached their opponents in their respective conference finals series. Both are excellent coaches, and while Miami has the best player in the series, the Spurs are much deeper and will be more pliable for different coaching strategies. I give the edge to the Spurs here just because they have more options and looks they can go with.

The Intangibles:
The Spurs seem to be playing better as the playoffs have gone on, while the Heat haven't really been tested, even playing an Indiana team that seemed weaker than last year's. Miami's defense, however, is probably tougher than any the Spurs have faced so far in the playoffs, and the Spurs have only been 2-4 during the playoffs when they've scored less than 100 points.

Overall:
This series is really really close, and it'll probably come down to who has the hot hand. The upside lies with San Antonio in that case, as they have more options and scorers. The Spurs are also more likely to be able to adapt to whatever pace the games end up being played at, while I'm not sure Miami, especially their second team, can keep up with a high scoring pace.

Prediction: San Antonio 4-3
Possible bets: Bet San Antonio to win the series 4-1. Current price around +375, which represents pretty good value. While the series seems pretty even, I can see San Antonio winning easily if their league-leading bench outperforms at home while they steal one on the road.

Let's look back and see how my conference finals predictions went.

Overall Series Predictions vs Actual Result:

Prediction San Antonio 4-1, Actual San Antonio 4-2
Prediction Miami 4-2, Actual Miami 4-2

I think I did a pretty good job. I got both winners right, and nailed the Miami series exactly. If Ibaka didn't make a miraculous comeback from his calf injury to play (and play well), i might have nailed that series exactly too.

SAS to win the series. Win one unit.
Parlay Under and IND SU in MIA@IND games. 1-2 for the series, win +.7 units

Overall results: 2-2 +1.7 units