As we enter 2014, I look back and feel that I had a pretty good year with the blog. I set out a goal to write a post every week, and I was pretty successful for the most part, with 70 total posts. There were a couple of slow months (March and August) when I only wrote 3 posts for the month, but I never felt like there was a really long break between posts. The majority of blog posts that I wrote were about food and sports, but I'll be looking to add a little more variety in 2014.
Before finally moving on to 2014 (although we're already a week in), let's look back at 2013.
Food
I've been very fortunate when it comes to food throughout my life, and 2013 was another great gustatory year, even as I lost 30 pounds. Some meals really stood out to me, and I added a new feature on the blog with "My Favorite Recent Meals" to showcase them. My favorite meal of the year was my first meal of two at Eleven Madison Park, which was so epic I had to split it into two blog posts (part 1 and 2).
Sports/Gambling
I started a new feature called NFL Underdog '13, where I focused on picking just one underdog each week during the 2013-2014 NFL season. I thought it was pretty successful (final results: 10-7ATS, 6-11SU +25), and I'm looking forward to doing it again next season. It's also given me some ideas for new features for this year's NBA and MLB seasons, so I might end up writing much more about sports this coming year.
Entertainment
This has been a great year for television, with great shows like Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Dr. Who, and The Walking Dead being a part of mainstream pop culture. I continue to watch a lot of TV, but haven't really blogged about it this past year. I did blog a couple of anime recommendations, as I've really gotten into anime this past year. There are some really great stories being told in that medium, and I would like to share some more of them with readers.
I wish everyone a great 2014 and I'm looking forward to writing and sharing even more!
Showing posts with label NFLUnderdog13. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFLUnderdog13. Show all posts
Monday, January 6, 2014
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 17 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
It's hard to believe that I've been at this for 17 whole weeks! It's been a fun, if not particularly profitable, ride. I would say that the season as a whole has been fairly successful. Even if this week's pick loses, it would still have been a profitable venture overall. I've cooled off significantly since a strong start, but I also managed to successfully pick a few real, nobody-gave-them-a-chance underdogs.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ DAL
Line:
DAL +6.5
DAL +230 ML
Much of the attention has been on the whole Romo (and Orton) thing, but how come noone talks about these two teams' earlier meeting this season? Foles started that game and they couldn't get anything going. Sure there's no Sean Lee now on Dallas' defense, but Romo didn't play particularly well that game either. While Orton may not be able to lead a huge comeback, he's also been a very consistent player throughout his career. Murray wasn't in that first game either, and his return will be big for Dallas here in the rematch. If the Eagles can't jump out to a big lead, they could easily be the ones in trouble in a close game late.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 seasons, one winner-gets-the-division game has been played each year and was won by the home team.
Record:
ATS 9-7
ML 6-10 +125
It's hard to believe that I've been at this for 17 whole weeks! It's been a fun, if not particularly profitable, ride. I would say that the season as a whole has been fairly successful. Even if this week's pick loses, it would still have been a profitable venture overall. I've cooled off significantly since a strong start, but I also managed to successfully pick a few real, nobody-gave-them-a-chance underdogs.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ DAL
Line:
DAL +6.5
DAL +230 ML
Much of the attention has been on the whole Romo (and Orton) thing, but how come noone talks about these two teams' earlier meeting this season? Foles started that game and they couldn't get anything going. Sure there's no Sean Lee now on Dallas' defense, but Romo didn't play particularly well that game either. While Orton may not be able to lead a huge comeback, he's also been a very consistent player throughout his career. Murray wasn't in that first game either, and his return will be big for Dallas here in the rematch. If the Eagles can't jump out to a big lead, they could easily be the ones in trouble in a close game late.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 seasons, one winner-gets-the-division game has been played each year and was won by the home team.
Record:
ATS 9-7
ML 6-10 +125
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 16 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Sorry for the late post, and happy holidays to all!
Underdog of the Week:
CHI @ PHI
Line:
CHI +2.5
CHI +115 ML
While much has been made about the Eagles' "high powered offense" under Chip Kelly, it's unclear how well Philly actually does in a shootout, and they weren't up to the task last week at Minnesota. On the other hand, whether it's been Cutler or McCown under center, the Bears have been able to score. Chicago should also be more motivated, as the NFC North playoff picture is still unclear while the NFC East will come down to the week 17 game regardless.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the last 2 seasons, week 16 home favorites favored by a FG or less went 1-5 SU and ATS.
Record:
ATS 9-6
ML 6-9 +225
Sorry for the late post, and happy holidays to all!
Underdog of the Week:
CHI @ PHI
Line:
CHI +2.5
CHI +115 ML
While much has been made about the Eagles' "high powered offense" under Chip Kelly, it's unclear how well Philly actually does in a shootout, and they weren't up to the task last week at Minnesota. On the other hand, whether it's been Cutler or McCown under center, the Bears have been able to score. Chicago should also be more motivated, as the NFC North playoff picture is still unclear while the NFC East will come down to the week 17 game regardless.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the last 2 seasons, week 16 home favorites favored by a FG or less went 1-5 SU and ATS.
Record:
ATS 9-6
ML 6-9 +225
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 15 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
One thing that got lost among last week's crazy finishes was that if Antonio Brown had kept his toe in bounds, all favorites would have won straight up last week.
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ STL
Line:
STL +5.5
STL +210 ML
To me, this is the perfect let down spot for the Saints. They could easily be looking ahead to next week's game at Carolina, which rates to be their biggest game of the regular season. The public should be all over them as they just had a dominating win against those same division leading Panthers, but they do head into this week's game on short rest. Add to that New Orleans' big home-road disparity, and this is a recipe for an upset. St Louis has also been fairly frisky all year, and their last two losses were both on the road against teams in the playoff hunt with stellar defenses.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 3 years, week 15 favorites have only won without covering twice. As they either covered or lost outright, maybe we shouldn't worry about back door covers this week.
Record:
ATS 8-6
ML 5-9 +15
One thing that got lost among last week's crazy finishes was that if Antonio Brown had kept his toe in bounds, all favorites would have won straight up last week.
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ STL
Line:
STL +5.5
STL +210 ML
To me, this is the perfect let down spot for the Saints. They could easily be looking ahead to next week's game at Carolina, which rates to be their biggest game of the regular season. The public should be all over them as they just had a dominating win against those same division leading Panthers, but they do head into this week's game on short rest. Add to that New Orleans' big home-road disparity, and this is a recipe for an upset. St Louis has also been fairly frisky all year, and their last two losses were both on the road against teams in the playoff hunt with stellar defenses.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 3 years, week 15 favorites have only won without covering twice. As they either covered or lost outright, maybe we shouldn't worry about back door covers this week.
Record:
ATS 8-6
ML 5-9 +15
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 14 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Of course after I'd given up on the Falcons they were the ones that pulled off the upset when I had to choose between Atlanta and New Orleans.
Underdog of the Week:
DET @ PHI
Line:
DET +2.5
DET +125 ML
With three quarters of the season gone and no bye weeks left, stamina is going to matter. Having any extra days of rest for prep should be a distinct advantage. There were six teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday, and this week three of them are road underdogs getting less than a FG.
Of those three underdogs, Detroit has the best road record, which is one of the reasons I'm picking them. Another reason I like Detroit is that I think they match up well against Philadelphia. Even though the Eagles held on for a solid win against a good Arizona team, their secondary still looked vulnerable, and I can't imagine any lead to be safe with that defense against the Lions' passing offense. And while Foles' amazing QB numbers have been in the spotlight recently, I still think much of what makes that offense go is McCoy, and Detroit actually has a solid run defense.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 years, underdogs that played on Thanksgiving Thursday the previous week have gone 9-2 ATS and 4-7 straight up.
Record:
ATS 8-5
ML 5-8 +115
Of course after I'd given up on the Falcons they were the ones that pulled off the upset when I had to choose between Atlanta and New Orleans.
Underdog of the Week:
DET @ PHI
Line:
DET +2.5
DET +125 ML
With three quarters of the season gone and no bye weeks left, stamina is going to matter. Having any extra days of rest for prep should be a distinct advantage. There were six teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday, and this week three of them are road underdogs getting less than a FG.
Of those three underdogs, Detroit has the best road record, which is one of the reasons I'm picking them. Another reason I like Detroit is that I think they match up well against Philadelphia. Even though the Eagles held on for a solid win against a good Arizona team, their secondary still looked vulnerable, and I can't imagine any lead to be safe with that defense against the Lions' passing offense. And while Foles' amazing QB numbers have been in the spotlight recently, I still think much of what makes that offense go is McCoy, and Detroit actually has a solid run defense.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 years, underdogs that played on Thanksgiving Thursday the previous week have gone 9-2 ATS and 4-7 straight up.
Record:
ATS 8-5
ML 5-8 +115
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 13 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
I finally hit a big underdog who won outright!
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ SEA
Line:
NO +5
NO +180 ML
Thanksgiving is one of the few public holidays in the US that begin in the middle of the week, so it drastically affects a lot of people's schedules. In the same way, my guess is it affects how NFL teams prepare, and a team with a few extra days might have a nice edge. The Saints and the Falcons played each other in last week's Thursday game, and both are underdogs this week.
Since I've already said that I'm done with the Falcons, I'm left with the Saints. There's plenty of motivation here as this is practically a playoff game for the Saints, with Carolina breathing down their necks and a chance at home field throughout if they can get the win here. There might also be a revenge factor at play as the Saints' last visit to Seattle was a playoff loss as a heavy favorite three seasons ago. The Saints also get Sproles back, who is essential as the short passing game with him is pretty much their equivalent of a running game.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Since Thursday night games became a staple of the schedule, Thanksgiving week underdogs who played the Thursday night game the previous week have a 5-3 straight up record.
Record:
ATS 8-4
ML 5-7 +215
I finally hit a big underdog who won outright!
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ SEA
Line:
NO +5
NO +180 ML
Thanksgiving is one of the few public holidays in the US that begin in the middle of the week, so it drastically affects a lot of people's schedules. In the same way, my guess is it affects how NFL teams prepare, and a team with a few extra days might have a nice edge. The Saints and the Falcons played each other in last week's Thursday game, and both are underdogs this week.
Since I've already said that I'm done with the Falcons, I'm left with the Saints. There's plenty of motivation here as this is practically a playoff game for the Saints, with Carolina breathing down their necks and a chance at home field throughout if they can get the win here. There might also be a revenge factor at play as the Saints' last visit to Seattle was a playoff loss as a heavy favorite three seasons ago. The Saints also get Sproles back, who is essential as the short passing game with him is pretty much their equivalent of a running game.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Since Thursday night games became a staple of the schedule, Thanksgiving week underdogs who played the Thursday night game the previous week have a 5-3 straight up record.
Record:
ATS 8-4
ML 5-7 +215
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 12 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Underdog of the Week:
JAC @ HOU
Line:
JAC +10
JAC +385 ML
I like to look back at what happened the same week in previous seasons to help with my picks, but I don't think that will work this week. This year is one of those rare occasions when week 12 does not fall on Thanksgiving week. It's only happened one other time during the past seven years, back in 2008. So what happened then? The biggest underdog of the week, an offensively-challenged Raiders team led by Jamarcus Russell, went on the road and beat up the Denver Broncos, a middling division rival that year. Can something similar happen this year? I say it will!
The stories are very similar. Jacksonville is the biggest underdog this week, an offensively-challenged team visiting a mediocre division rival. Looking just at the stats, Houston is rightfully a double digit favorite. But the Jaguars have played better on the road than at home, having covered the spread in their last two away games. I continue to think it's because of those horrible black home uniforms. Couple that with Houston, who hasn't covered any spread at home this season, and there's a recipe for a big upset. There's a lot of internal strife in Houston right now, and the pressure of playing at home in front of booing fans may be too much to handle.
While Houston has very impressive stats on both sides of the ball (their main failure has been turnovers), they do appear to have one weakness, and that is defending tight ends. Perhaps Marcedes Lewis can regain some of the form from that one random 10TD season he had.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Couldn't find the data, but I'd have to imagine a 2-8 team as a double digit favorite is pretty rare.
Record:
ATS 7-4
ML 4-7 -170
Underdog of the Week:
JAC @ HOU
Line:
JAC +10
JAC +385 ML
I like to look back at what happened the same week in previous seasons to help with my picks, but I don't think that will work this week. This year is one of those rare occasions when week 12 does not fall on Thanksgiving week. It's only happened one other time during the past seven years, back in 2008. So what happened then? The biggest underdog of the week, an offensively-challenged Raiders team led by Jamarcus Russell, went on the road and beat up the Denver Broncos, a middling division rival that year. Can something similar happen this year? I say it will!
The stories are very similar. Jacksonville is the biggest underdog this week, an offensively-challenged team visiting a mediocre division rival. Looking just at the stats, Houston is rightfully a double digit favorite. But the Jaguars have played better on the road than at home, having covered the spread in their last two away games. I continue to think it's because of those horrible black home uniforms. Couple that with Houston, who hasn't covered any spread at home this season, and there's a recipe for a big upset. There's a lot of internal strife in Houston right now, and the pressure of playing at home in front of booing fans may be too much to handle.
While Houston has very impressive stats on both sides of the ball (their main failure has been turnovers), they do appear to have one weakness, and that is defending tight ends. Perhaps Marcedes Lewis can regain some of the form from that one random 10TD season he had.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Couldn't find the data, but I'd have to imagine a 2-8 team as a double digit favorite is pretty rare.
Record:
ATS 7-4
ML 4-7 -170
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 11 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
That's it, I'm done with Atlanta.
Underdog of the Week:
CLE @ CIN
Line:
CLE +5.5
CLE +210 ML
I really have no numbers or stats for this week. Last year, week 11 saw only one underdog win outright. The only team that might have had a trend, the Rams, is on a bye.
The Bengals have won all their home games so far this season. On the road, every game they've played has had a final differential of a FG or less, except for their loss to the Browns. I think that means something. People will point at the Browns' QB situation, but the focus should really be on their defense which was the only team so far this season to hold Cincy to single digits. If it does end up being a 9-6 type of game, I think the Browns can pull it out coming off a bye.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 6 seasons, a winless road team visiting an undefeated home team in week 11 has only happened twice. The home team won both times, but was only 1-1 ATS.
Record:
ATS 7-3
ML 4-6 -70
That's it, I'm done with Atlanta.
Underdog of the Week:
CLE @ CIN
Line:
CLE +5.5
CLE +210 ML
I really have no numbers or stats for this week. Last year, week 11 saw only one underdog win outright. The only team that might have had a trend, the Rams, is on a bye.
The Bengals have won all their home games so far this season. On the road, every game they've played has had a final differential of a FG or less, except for their loss to the Browns. I think that means something. People will point at the Browns' QB situation, but the focus should really be on their defense which was the only team so far this season to hold Cincy to single digits. If it does end up being a 9-6 type of game, I think the Browns can pull it out coming off a bye.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 6 seasons, a winless road team visiting an undefeated home team in week 11 has only happened twice. The home team won both times, but was only 1-1 ATS.
Record:
ATS 7-3
ML 4-6 -70
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 10 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Underdog of the Week:
SEA @ ATL
Line:
ATL +5.5
ATL +210 ML
As the season is now past the halfway point, it's easy to have the recency effect take over and only focus on what happened the previous week as opposed to earlier in the year. Teams coming off a bad loss may appear much worse than they actually are. Over the past 5 years, teams that have lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were a TD or less underdog in week 10 went 9-7 SU.
Atlanta has looked horrible the last two weeks, including week 8 when I took them against Arizona. However, both of those were on the road whereas they've had two wins at home as well as a close loss to a Jets team that's now proving to be not as bad as everyone first thought. I think Atlanta is in a good spot here this week. Seattle has been playing poorly the past two weeks, barely eking out wins against weak teams. Atlanta is still missing a couple of their top playmakers, but a few weeks of playing together and a return home should help the substitutes step up.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Sometimes, bad teams are just bad, regardless of the recency effect. Over the past five seasons, those teams that lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were an underdog of more than a TD in week 10 went 2-6 ATS.
Record:
ATS 7-2
ML 4-5 +30
Underdog of the Week:
SEA @ ATL
Line:
ATL +5.5
ATL +210 ML
As the season is now past the halfway point, it's easy to have the recency effect take over and only focus on what happened the previous week as opposed to earlier in the year. Teams coming off a bad loss may appear much worse than they actually are. Over the past 5 years, teams that have lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were a TD or less underdog in week 10 went 9-7 SU.
Atlanta has looked horrible the last two weeks, including week 8 when I took them against Arizona. However, both of those were on the road whereas they've had two wins at home as well as a close loss to a Jets team that's now proving to be not as bad as everyone first thought. I think Atlanta is in a good spot here this week. Seattle has been playing poorly the past two weeks, barely eking out wins against weak teams. Atlanta is still missing a couple of their top playmakers, but a few weeks of playing together and a return home should help the substitutes step up.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Sometimes, bad teams are just bad, regardless of the recency effect. Over the past five seasons, those teams that lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were an underdog of more than a TD in week 10 went 2-6 ATS.
Record:
ATS 7-2
ML 4-5 +30
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 9 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ OAK
Line:
PHI +2
PHI +115 ML
Conventional wisdom has home field advantage worth about 3 points. Home teams that are about even or slightly worse than their opponents will still end up favored in the spread. However, that home field advantage hasn't seem to help those teams during week 9. In the past 5 seasons, home favorites of 3 or fewer points have gone 1-8 both straight up and ATS.
Philadelphia fits the criteria this week, being a small underdog despite scoring ten total points in their last two games combined. However, it's possible the Eagles just play better on the road, having been winless at home so far this season. The return of Nick Foles should help to jump start that offense as well.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past five seasons, home favorites of 3.5 points were 0-4 ATS and 0-2 SU.
Record:
ATS 6-2
ML 3-5 -70
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ OAK
Line:
PHI +2
PHI +115 ML
Conventional wisdom has home field advantage worth about 3 points. Home teams that are about even or slightly worse than their opponents will still end up favored in the spread. However, that home field advantage hasn't seem to help those teams during week 9. In the past 5 seasons, home favorites of 3 or fewer points have gone 1-8 both straight up and ATS.
Philadelphia fits the criteria this week, being a small underdog despite scoring ten total points in their last two games combined. However, it's possible the Eagles just play better on the road, having been winless at home so far this season. The return of Nick Foles should help to jump start that offense as well.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past five seasons, home favorites of 3.5 points were 0-4 ATS and 0-2 SU.
Record:
ATS 6-2
ML 3-5 -70
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 8 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Oh well, all streaks come to an end at some point. Just have to start a new winning streak.
Underdog of the Week:
ATL @ ARI
Line:
ATL +2 (some books have it at 2.5)
ATL +120 ML
While most of my picks so far have been based on previous years' trends, we're far along enough in the season to start looking at trends that have developed during this season. I originally read this trend in Bill Simmons' article on Grantland, but it has since been written about elsewhere and makes a lot of sense. Fade the team that played against Seattle's bruising defense the previous week. Some would chalk the trend up to coincidence, but I vaguely remember similar trends from back when Baltimore and Pittsburgh had brutally punishing defenses a few years ago. Of course, it's possible that this streak will stop simply for the reason that Arizona is on 10 days' rest, but they also played a bruising 49er defense the week before playing Seattle.
I'm also curious about the line. While Atlanta is a more high profile name, Arizona has played well with excellent defense at home. Add to that Atlanta's road woes, and I would originally guess that sharps would be all over Arizona at home giving less than a FG. Yet the line hasn't moved to the key number of 3. In terms of the actual match up, while Atlanta has a losing record, all their games have been close, and none of the teams that they've lost to have been revealed to be particularly bad. If it comes down to the last possession or two, Matt Ryan vs. Carson Palmer is not much of a contest.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
So far this season, all the teams that have played Seattle have gone on to lose the following week, going 0-6 ATS and 0-2 straight up as a favorite.
Record:
ATS 6-1
ML 3-4 +30
Oh well, all streaks come to an end at some point. Just have to start a new winning streak.
Underdog of the Week:
ATL @ ARI
Line:
ATL +2 (some books have it at 2.5)
ATL +120 ML
While most of my picks so far have been based on previous years' trends, we're far along enough in the season to start looking at trends that have developed during this season. I originally read this trend in Bill Simmons' article on Grantland, but it has since been written about elsewhere and makes a lot of sense. Fade the team that played against Seattle's bruising defense the previous week. Some would chalk the trend up to coincidence, but I vaguely remember similar trends from back when Baltimore and Pittsburgh had brutally punishing defenses a few years ago. Of course, it's possible that this streak will stop simply for the reason that Arizona is on 10 days' rest, but they also played a bruising 49er defense the week before playing Seattle.
I'm also curious about the line. While Atlanta is a more high profile name, Arizona has played well with excellent defense at home. Add to that Atlanta's road woes, and I would originally guess that sharps would be all over Arizona at home giving less than a FG. Yet the line hasn't moved to the key number of 3. In terms of the actual match up, while Atlanta has a losing record, all their games have been close, and none of the teams that they've lost to have been revealed to be particularly bad. If it comes down to the last possession or two, Matt Ryan vs. Carson Palmer is not much of a contest.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
So far this season, all the teams that have played Seattle have gone on to lose the following week, going 0-6 ATS and 0-2 straight up as a favorite.
Record:
ATS 6-1
ML 3-4 +30
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 7 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Another week, another big underdog pick that just couldn't pull out the win. Buffalo had a chance there at the end in OT, but the basis of my pick was turnovers, which are just too hard to predict. On the other hand, if you faded all the big 9 point or more favorites as indicated by the stat of the week, you would've gone 4-1 ATS.
Underdog of the Week:
BAL @ PIT
Line:
BAL +1 (some books even have it at 2.5)
BAL +110 ML
Week 7 can be a tough one for underdogs. Last season, only one underdog won straight up, and they did so by only one point (Tenn@Buff). My guess is that as the good teams start to pull away from the bad ones record-wise, it's tough for certain teams to find motivation. One good way for a team to be motivated, however, is to play a divisional match up. Over the past 6 seasons, road underdogs in week 7 division games were 6-9 straight up and 10-5 ATS, whereas non-divisional road dogs were 8-22 SU and 16-14 ATS.
There are two teams that fit the category this week in Baltimore and Dallas, but I prefer Baltimore. Despite the difference in record, the Steelers are a deserving favorite because their stats are actually better on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage for Baltimore in the direct comparison so far this season has been turnovers, which as mentioned above are hard to predict. Pittsburgh, however, continues to face a rash of injuries while I can only imagine that Jacoby Jones and Ray Rice improve and open up the Baltimore offense as the season goes on. I also want to point out that the Steelers' lone win of the season came after a bye week, while the Ravens will be motivated to go all out with their bye week coming right after.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 6 seasons, it wasn't just divisional road dogs who performed well in week 7. Divisional road favorites were even better, going 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS.
Record:
ATS 6-0
ML 3-3 +130
Another week, another big underdog pick that just couldn't pull out the win. Buffalo had a chance there at the end in OT, but the basis of my pick was turnovers, which are just too hard to predict. On the other hand, if you faded all the big 9 point or more favorites as indicated by the stat of the week, you would've gone 4-1 ATS.
Underdog of the Week:
BAL @ PIT
Line:
BAL +1 (some books even have it at 2.5)
BAL +110 ML
Week 7 can be a tough one for underdogs. Last season, only one underdog won straight up, and they did so by only one point (Tenn@Buff). My guess is that as the good teams start to pull away from the bad ones record-wise, it's tough for certain teams to find motivation. One good way for a team to be motivated, however, is to play a divisional match up. Over the past 6 seasons, road underdogs in week 7 division games were 6-9 straight up and 10-5 ATS, whereas non-divisional road dogs were 8-22 SU and 16-14 ATS.
There are two teams that fit the category this week in Baltimore and Dallas, but I prefer Baltimore. Despite the difference in record, the Steelers are a deserving favorite because their stats are actually better on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage for Baltimore in the direct comparison so far this season has been turnovers, which as mentioned above are hard to predict. Pittsburgh, however, continues to face a rash of injuries while I can only imagine that Jacoby Jones and Ray Rice improve and open up the Baltimore offense as the season goes on. I also want to point out that the Steelers' lone win of the season came after a bye week, while the Ravens will be motivated to go all out with their bye week coming right after.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 6 seasons, it wasn't just divisional road dogs who performed well in week 7. Divisional road favorites were even better, going 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS.
Record:
ATS 6-0
ML 3-3 +130
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 6 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Even though Dallas didn't pull out the victory, last week's pick was the one I'm proudest of so far this season. Not only were they the biggest underdogs I've picked so far since I started this, but it was astounding the amount of flak I got when I was telling people that Dallas had a good chance to win that game. I also want to point out that I spend a good amount of time on the "Interesting Stat of the Week" in addition to the weekly pick, and you would've hit a big winner if you followed last week's stat. By the time Monday rolled around, no underdog of 6.5 or more points had won straight up yet, and a play on the Jets to win outright as 10 point underdogs would've netted a tidy profit.
Underdog of the Week:
CIN @ BUF
Line:
BUF +7
BUF +260 ML
With 5 weeks of games behind us, it is becoming increasingly clear which teams are good and which are bad. But how do bad teams upset good teams? One of the simpler answers is turnovers, something that is nearly impossible to predict. Yet over the past 6 seasons, 7 favored teams lost in week 6 because their QB threw 3 or more picks. This has happened regardless of whether the QBs were bad (Tim Rattay, Mark Sanchez), slightly above average (Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning), or fantasy studs (Philip Rivers, Drew Brees).
Buffalo is a big home underdog here because they are starting their practice squad QB, Thad Lewis. However, I think it's the Cincinnati QB who's going to have a bad game. Dalton has a history of throwing picks early in the season, having thrown at least one pick in each of his first 8 games last season and in 4 of his first 5 games this season. Add to that Buffalo's league leading 9 interceptions and 3rd ranked 18 sacks, and Dalton could be in for a long day. Also, who knows how often Lewis will even actually have to throw it with Buffalo's 3rd ranked running game?
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there were no closing lines between 7.5 and 8.5 inclusive. Of the lines that were 9 or more points, favorites were 5-12 ATS and 12-5 SU.
Record:
ATS 5-0
ML 3-2 +230
Even though Dallas didn't pull out the victory, last week's pick was the one I'm proudest of so far this season. Not only were they the biggest underdogs I've picked so far since I started this, but it was astounding the amount of flak I got when I was telling people that Dallas had a good chance to win that game. I also want to point out that I spend a good amount of time on the "Interesting Stat of the Week" in addition to the weekly pick, and you would've hit a big winner if you followed last week's stat. By the time Monday rolled around, no underdog of 6.5 or more points had won straight up yet, and a play on the Jets to win outright as 10 point underdogs would've netted a tidy profit.
Underdog of the Week:
CIN @ BUF
Line:
BUF +7
BUF +260 ML
With 5 weeks of games behind us, it is becoming increasingly clear which teams are good and which are bad. But how do bad teams upset good teams? One of the simpler answers is turnovers, something that is nearly impossible to predict. Yet over the past 6 seasons, 7 favored teams lost in week 6 because their QB threw 3 or more picks. This has happened regardless of whether the QBs were bad (Tim Rattay, Mark Sanchez), slightly above average (Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning), or fantasy studs (Philip Rivers, Drew Brees).
Buffalo is a big home underdog here because they are starting their practice squad QB, Thad Lewis. However, I think it's the Cincinnati QB who's going to have a bad game. Dalton has a history of throwing picks early in the season, having thrown at least one pick in each of his first 8 games last season and in 4 of his first 5 games this season. Add to that Buffalo's league leading 9 interceptions and 3rd ranked 18 sacks, and Dalton could be in for a long day. Also, who knows how often Lewis will even actually have to throw it with Buffalo's 3rd ranked running game?
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there were no closing lines between 7.5 and 8.5 inclusive. Of the lines that were 9 or more points, favorites were 5-12 ATS and 12-5 SU.
Record:
ATS 5-0
ML 3-2 +230
Thursday, October 3, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 5 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Shortly after I started this series, I was asked if I was going to pick big underdogs that provided good betting value, even though they were much less likely to win outright. Well, this week's pick is exactly that, but I also think there's a good chance of a straight up upset.
Underdog of the Week:
DEN @ DAL
Line:
DAL +7.5
DAL +280 ML
There's been a lot of talk about how unstoppable Denver has looked, with Manning on pace to break all kinds of records. But now that a quarter of the season has gone by, let's take a closer look. Denver's opponents so far this season have been pretty bad, while Dallas' close road loss to the Chiefs seems much better in hindsight. Denver hasn't really been tested yet, and in the NFL, there's a very big difference between a good team routing a bad team (where big lines often aren't big enough) versus a good team given a big spread against a team that can put up a fight. Over the past 5 years, favorites in week 5 laying 6.5-8.5 points were only 7-8 straight up while favorites laying 9 or more points were 7-2.
Dallas has also won both its home games while Denver has only won on the road once. Given the small sample size, no one's willing to put too much into home-road splits, but it could easily matter. Over the past 5 years, teams favored by 6.5-8.5 points on the road were only 2-4 straight up. The Cowboys have been the poster child of inconsistency the last few years, but that's what makes them dangerous as a big underdog.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there's been at least one underdog of 6.5 or more points that's won outright in week 5.
Record:
ATS 4-0
ML 3-1 +330
Shortly after I started this series, I was asked if I was going to pick big underdogs that provided good betting value, even though they were much less likely to win outright. Well, this week's pick is exactly that, but I also think there's a good chance of a straight up upset.
Underdog of the Week:
DEN @ DAL
Line:
DAL +7.5
DAL +280 ML
There's been a lot of talk about how unstoppable Denver has looked, with Manning on pace to break all kinds of records. But now that a quarter of the season has gone by, let's take a closer look. Denver's opponents so far this season have been pretty bad, while Dallas' close road loss to the Chiefs seems much better in hindsight. Denver hasn't really been tested yet, and in the NFL, there's a very big difference between a good team routing a bad team (where big lines often aren't big enough) versus a good team given a big spread against a team that can put up a fight. Over the past 5 years, favorites in week 5 laying 6.5-8.5 points were only 7-8 straight up while favorites laying 9 or more points were 7-2.
Dallas has also won both its home games while Denver has only won on the road once. Given the small sample size, no one's willing to put too much into home-road splits, but it could easily matter. Over the past 5 years, teams favored by 6.5-8.5 points on the road were only 2-4 straight up. The Cowboys have been the poster child of inconsistency the last few years, but that's what makes them dangerous as a big underdog.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 5 seasons, there's been at least one underdog of 6.5 or more points that's won outright in week 5.
Record:
ATS 4-0
ML 3-1 +330
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 4 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
In general I've found that people love fading streaks. They like to think that a team on a long losing streak is "due" for a win or vice versa. That is usually a quick way to go broke.
Underdog of the Week:
PIT @ MIN (in UK)
Line:
MIN +2.5
MIN +120 ML
Over the past 5 seasons, 5 winless teams have been favored with an overall record of 1-4. This week features two such teams in the Steelers and Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are a mess and have just benched Freeman, so I'm going to stay away. I like this matchup for the Vikings as they have been able to put up points and have playmakers such as Peterson and Jennings. Their main problem has been on defense, and I don't think Pittsburgh, which has had problems scoring so far this season, will be able to take advantage of that. The Vikings have a clear advantage in the running game, and that might come into play if the weather in London is poor. The line has been in flux as Vikings QB Ponder is listed as questionable, but I don't think that Matt Cassel is too big of a downgrade if Ponder can't go.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 6 years, the Dallas Cowboys have been 1-4 as a favorite in week 4.
Record:
ATS 3-0
ML 2-1 +210
In general I've found that people love fading streaks. They like to think that a team on a long losing streak is "due" for a win or vice versa. That is usually a quick way to go broke.
Underdog of the Week:
PIT @ MIN (in UK)
Line:
MIN +2.5
MIN +120 ML
Over the past 5 seasons, 5 winless teams have been favored with an overall record of 1-4. This week features two such teams in the Steelers and Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are a mess and have just benched Freeman, so I'm going to stay away. I like this matchup for the Vikings as they have been able to put up points and have playmakers such as Peterson and Jennings. Their main problem has been on defense, and I don't think Pittsburgh, which has had problems scoring so far this season, will be able to take advantage of that. The Vikings have a clear advantage in the running game, and that might come into play if the weather in London is poor. The line has been in flux as Vikings QB Ponder is listed as questionable, but I don't think that Matt Cassel is too big of a downgrade if Ponder can't go.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 6 years, the Dallas Cowboys have been 1-4 as a favorite in week 4.
Record:
ATS 3-0
ML 2-1 +210
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 3 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Almost managed to start the season 2-0 in my outright underdog picks, but Tampa Bay managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the final minute for the second week in a row. Regardless of the actual win-loss record, I'm pretty satisfied with the performance of my two picks so far.
Even though the NFL season only consists of 16 regular season games, it is a long grind. So it's not that surprising to me to sometimes see unlikely teams string together wins to start the season. Examples include last year's 4-0 Cardinals, the 3-0 Bills from the year before, and the 3-0 Chiefs three seasons ago.
Underdog of the Week:
KC @ PHI
Line:
KC +3
KC +150 ML
Looking at some of the teams that are 2-0 so far this season, only the Chiefs are currently an underdog this week, while both HOU and MIA are only 1 point favorites. I think this is a very good situation for the Chiefs. With the shortened preparation time, Andy Reid's knowledge of some of the Eagles' players may come into play, even if they're playing in Chip Kelly's offense. Furthermore, this is a pretty good matchup for the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles' running and Alex Smith in a West Coast offense could slow the game down, while on the defensive side Kansas City boasts 4 pro bowlers from last year and held MJD to 15 rushes for 45 yards in their week 1 game.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, at least one 2-0 underdog has won outright in week 3 each year.
Record:
ATS 2-0
ML 1-1 +60
Almost managed to start the season 2-0 in my outright underdog picks, but Tampa Bay managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the final minute for the second week in a row. Regardless of the actual win-loss record, I'm pretty satisfied with the performance of my two picks so far.
Even though the NFL season only consists of 16 regular season games, it is a long grind. So it's not that surprising to me to sometimes see unlikely teams string together wins to start the season. Examples include last year's 4-0 Cardinals, the 3-0 Bills from the year before, and the 3-0 Chiefs three seasons ago.
Underdog of the Week:
KC @ PHI
Line:
KC +3
KC +150 ML
Looking at some of the teams that are 2-0 so far this season, only the Chiefs are currently an underdog this week, while both HOU and MIA are only 1 point favorites. I think this is a very good situation for the Chiefs. With the shortened preparation time, Andy Reid's knowledge of some of the Eagles' players may come into play, even if they're playing in Chip Kelly's offense. Furthermore, this is a pretty good matchup for the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles' running and Alex Smith in a West Coast offense could slow the game down, while on the defensive side Kansas City boasts 4 pro bowlers from last year and held MJD to 15 rushes for 45 yards in their week 1 game.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, at least one 2-0 underdog has won outright in week 3 each year.
Record:
ATS 2-0
ML 1-1 +60
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 2 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Last week's win was a good start, but it's a long season. For week 2, my first instinct was to look at teams that may have looked so good or so bad that they caused an overreaction among the betting public. When I then looked back at past data, what I found was that home dogs tended to perform pretty well in week 2. This makes sense in the context of the original thesis. Some teams look so good in week 1 at home (or bad on the road) that bettors misjudge the team as well as forget about the home-away disparity that occurs in the NFL.
There are actually only four home dogs this week in the Bills, Bucs, Cardinals, and Giants. I actually like all four, although I can only choose one.
Bills: They almost pulled off a huge upset of the Patriots in week 1, and face a road team that couldn't win their week 1 game at home. However, it's unclear just how good the Patriots are, and the Bills have always played them tough.
Bucs: They lost to the Jets on a stupid penalty on the penultimate play of the game, but otherwise pretty much had that game won. Winning a road game is always difficult in the NFL, even if it was against the lowly Jets. The Saints, on the other hand, won at home (where Brees has been significantly better during his Saints tenure), but needed a final goal line stand against a Falcons team that's also been much better at home historically.
Cardinals: They also almost won on the road before a 2-TD comeback in the 4th quarter by the Rams. The Lions may also be slightly overrated because of their dominant fantasy numbers against Minnesota in week 1. I just don't like how Arizona blew its lead in the 4th quarter, and the Stafford-Megatron-Bush-etc. crew is pretty good at last minute comebacks if needed.
Giants: Despite 6 turnovers and a -5 turnover margin, they were still right in the game at the end there. You would certainly expect regression to a more normal turnover number, just as you would expect regression to a more normal TD performance from Peyton Manning. There has already been an overreaction to Peyton's 7 TDs and Giant's 6TOs, as the line opened at NYG+2.5 before being bet by the public to NYG+6. Sharps then came in on the other side and the line has settled at NYG+4. In the end, it's just too difficult to pick a team on less than normal rest against a team with more than normal rest, even if it's early in the season.
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ TB
Line:
TB +3.5
TB +145 ML
I decided to go with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's very difficult putting out picks before Thursday's game, and more so in this case because tonight's Patriots-Jets game might reveal more about both the Bills and the Bucs. Furthermore, with the Saints being a team that the public loves to bet on, the line could easily get better by kickoff on Sunday. In fact, this is one of the reasons that I'm going with the Bucs. Covers.com Consensus picks has New Orleans at 78%, which is a very high number. I also like that while Doug Martin was held to only 65 yds from 24 rushes, the Saints gave up over 6 yds per carry against the Falcons.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, at least two home underdogs have won outright in week 2 each year.
Record:
ATS 1-0
ML +160
Last week's win was a good start, but it's a long season. For week 2, my first instinct was to look at teams that may have looked so good or so bad that they caused an overreaction among the betting public. When I then looked back at past data, what I found was that home dogs tended to perform pretty well in week 2. This makes sense in the context of the original thesis. Some teams look so good in week 1 at home (or bad on the road) that bettors misjudge the team as well as forget about the home-away disparity that occurs in the NFL.
There are actually only four home dogs this week in the Bills, Bucs, Cardinals, and Giants. I actually like all four, although I can only choose one.
Bills: They almost pulled off a huge upset of the Patriots in week 1, and face a road team that couldn't win their week 1 game at home. However, it's unclear just how good the Patriots are, and the Bills have always played them tough.
Bucs: They lost to the Jets on a stupid penalty on the penultimate play of the game, but otherwise pretty much had that game won. Winning a road game is always difficult in the NFL, even if it was against the lowly Jets. The Saints, on the other hand, won at home (where Brees has been significantly better during his Saints tenure), but needed a final goal line stand against a Falcons team that's also been much better at home historically.
Cardinals: They also almost won on the road before a 2-TD comeback in the 4th quarter by the Rams. The Lions may also be slightly overrated because of their dominant fantasy numbers against Minnesota in week 1. I just don't like how Arizona blew its lead in the 4th quarter, and the Stafford-Megatron-Bush-etc. crew is pretty good at last minute comebacks if needed.
Giants: Despite 6 turnovers and a -5 turnover margin, they were still right in the game at the end there. You would certainly expect regression to a more normal turnover number, just as you would expect regression to a more normal TD performance from Peyton Manning. There has already been an overreaction to Peyton's 7 TDs and Giant's 6TOs, as the line opened at NYG+2.5 before being bet by the public to NYG+6. Sharps then came in on the other side and the line has settled at NYG+4. In the end, it's just too difficult to pick a team on less than normal rest against a team with more than normal rest, even if it's early in the season.
Underdog of the Week:
NO @ TB
Line:
TB +3.5
TB +145 ML
I decided to go with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's very difficult putting out picks before Thursday's game, and more so in this case because tonight's Patriots-Jets game might reveal more about both the Bills and the Bucs. Furthermore, with the Saints being a team that the public loves to bet on, the line could easily get better by kickoff on Sunday. In fact, this is one of the reasons that I'm going with the Bucs. Covers.com Consensus picks has New Orleans at 78%, which is a very high number. I also like that while Doug Martin was held to only 65 yds from 24 rushes, the Saints gave up over 6 yds per carry against the Falcons.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, at least two home underdogs have won outright in week 2 each year.
Record:
ATS 1-0
ML +160
Thursday, September 5, 2013
Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 1 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)
The new football season is upon us, and I've decided to switch it up a little this season. Every week, I will pick an underdog that I think not only has a good chance to cover the spread, but that I think has a decent chance to win outright. Underdogs often provide good value from a betting standpoint, so I hope readers will appreciate the shift to just picking underdogs.
Now that there's a Thursday night game every week on the NFL schedule, I'll try my best to get my pick out before then. Underdog picks that have a chance to upset outright are also important because there are a lot of survivor pools out there.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ WAS
Line:
PHI +3.5
PHI +160 ML
The line for this game was 4.5 as recently as mid-August. I looked back at week 1 upsets over the past few years and found that teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite vulnerable. Furthermore, over the past 5 seasons, at least one new coach won outright in an upset. While RG3 and Morris put up some amazing numbers last season, let's not forget that the Eagles were responsible for a high powered offense themselves not that long ago, and Vick, McCoy, Maclin, and Jackson are still there.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, teams that have been favored by exactly 1 point in week 1 have lost 8 out of 10 times.
Now that there's a Thursday night game every week on the NFL schedule, I'll try my best to get my pick out before then. Underdog picks that have a chance to upset outright are also important because there are a lot of survivor pools out there.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ WAS
Line:
PHI +3.5
PHI +160 ML
The line for this game was 4.5 as recently as mid-August. I looked back at week 1 upsets over the past few years and found that teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite vulnerable. Furthermore, over the past 5 seasons, at least one new coach won outright in an upset. While RG3 and Morris put up some amazing numbers last season, let's not forget that the Eagles were responsible for a high powered offense themselves not that long ago, and Vick, McCoy, Maclin, and Jackson are still there.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, teams that have been favored by exactly 1 point in week 1 have lost 8 out of 10 times.
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