Saturday, November 3, 2012

Is it really that simple? (sport, gambling)

Detroit has one of the highest scoring 4th quarter offenses, averaging 13.4 points in the final period (I'm not sure if this stat includes overtime points). One reason for this is the fact that Detroit has been playing from behind most of the season, sometimes far behind. Offenses are obviously more likely to score if they use all four downs on every set and are in the hurry up.

Jacksonville is also a team that's often been playing from behind this season. And yet, Jacksonville has one of the poorest 4th quarter offenses, averaging 3.7 points and scoring exactly ZERO points in the 4th quarter in three home games. What makes it even worse for them is that their defense is giving up an average of 10.4 points in the fourth quarter, with that number going up to 13.7 at home.

So why is Jacksonville so much worse than usual (and their usual is pretty bad) in the 4th quarter, especially at home? I read an observation online that could easily be the explanation. It's not something reflected in numbers or stats, but it does makes a lot of sense. The Jaguars' home uniform is a black jersey with black pants! Sometimes, it really is just that simple.

It's already likely that the Jaguars' defense is on the field more than average because of their shaky offense. Compounding that by trapping the sweltering heat of that muggy Florida weather (temps in 80s, humidity frequently 30%+) through head-to-toe black uniforms is disastrous! I can't imagine how exhausted the players must be by the fourth quarter.


If you can play props, just bet Detroit 4th quarter.
Otherwise, I would suggest playing Detroit full game, and adding to it at halftime if the game is close or if somehow Jacksonville has the lead.

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