Saturday, May 18, 2013

2012-2013 NBA Playoffs Conference Finals Preview (sport, gambling)

And so, four teams remain...

Memphis Grizzlies (5) at San Antonio Spurs (2)

As much as I would like to see the Grizzlies win as I think they're the only team left that could beat Miami, I just don't see them getting past San Antonio. The Spurs should be able to shoot just well enough to hold off the stifling Grizzlies defense, while the Memphis offense can't put up big numbers like Golden State did which caused all kinds of trouble for San Antonio. Both of these teams play exceptionally well at home, so I see this series going the same way the regular season series did, with each team winning all their home games.

Prediction: San Antonio 4-3
Possible bets: Bet San Antonio to win the series. Current price around -140.

Indiana Pacers (3) at Miami Heat (1)

The Pacers match up pretty well with the Heat, with good interior size and tough defense that aims to slow down opponents' transition baskets. However, they face the same problem that the Grizzlies have against the Spurs in that they play exceptionally well at home but don't have home court advantage for the series. Indiana still looks like it's missing that one final piece to get them to the next level.

Prediction: Miami 4-3
Possible bets: Bet the under on every game. I think there are going to be a lot of quarters where both teams score less than 20 points.

Let's look back and see how my second round predictions went.

Overall Series Predictions vs Actual Result:

Prediction Memphis 4-2, Actual Memphis 4-1
Prediction San Antonio 4-1, Actual San Antonio 4-2
Prediction Miami 4-1, Actual Miami 4-1
Prediction Indiana 4-2, Actual Indiana 4-2

Those predictions were pretty spot on. I got all the winners right, two of the series exactly, and the other two series were only off by one game each. Much of the analysis hit the mark as well, including Golden State's sloppy play costing them (lost 14 point lead with 4 minutes left in game 1), and Indiana stealing a game on the road early before winning all their home games. Let's see if I did as well on the bets:

MEM to win the series. Win one unit.
Over in GSW@SAS games. 2-4 for the series.
MIA 4-1 specifically. Won, but not all books have these bets.
Under in IND@NYK games. 3-2-1 for the series.
IND to win the series. Odds were at about +150, so win 1.5 units.

Overall results: 7-6-1 +0.9 units

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