In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Finally had a winner last week, and the first since week 1. Can't believe we're almost at the half-way point of the season. The NFL season has gone by so quickly, and the NBA is starting in less than a week!
Underdog of the Week:
SD @ DEN
SD +320 ML
While I usually wait until the weekend to post my pick, there just weren't any underdogs I liked on Sunday. So I'm picking the Chargers on Thursday night even though I picked them to be upset last week and said that the previous two weeks was a sign that they aren't actually as dominant as some of their wins so far this season may have suggested. At the same time, Denver is rolling again, now that all their receivers are back.
So why do I like the Chargers here? It's not really for football reasons. First off, the spread is too big. Since Manning joined the Broncos, the Chargers have lost to the Broncos by more than 8 points just once, and that was a game when they led 24-0 at the half. Another thing I'm looking at is that the Broncos have both covered the spread and went over the total in their last 3 games. In fact, during Manning's tenure with the Broncos, Denver has done exactly that almost 40% of the time, well above the 25% as expected by random chance. But there is only one game tonight and it is in prime time. This is the first game between contenders on Thursday night football all year. Everyone will be watching this game and casual players love parlaying the favorite and the over. Do you really think Vegas would offer up such an easy layup?
ML 2-4 -80