Saturday, October 1, 2011

NFL Picks Week 4 2011 (sport, gambling)

There were a couple of remarkable comebacks last week, but the most amazing thing for me last week was that Chicago punt return TD that was called back.

MIN 1H whatever the line is

The line for this game is Minnesota by 2.5, but I think the first half line needs to be at least Minnesota by 3. Despite being 0-3 this season, the Vikings have led during halftime in every one of those games, against teams much better than the Chiefs. In Kansas City's only game where they scored more than 7 points, they were held scoreless in the first half. This is one of those rare moments where the trends are very clear, but the books may not be able to set the line that reflects the trend because of the situation mathematically.

PIT +3.5

Pittsburgh's offensive line has looked horrible so far, but they still have weapons and know how to win. Houston's looked much more impressive so far, but they haven't played a strong defensive-minded team yet. I just don't think the Texans have proven themselves yet, and the extra half point is too much to give to a tough, experienced team.

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