Saturday, November 19, 2011

NFL Picks Week 11 2011 (sport, gambling)

Even though I've only been able to make one pick per week in recent weeks, I have been on quite a streak, having picked 6 winners in a row. I mention this since I may as well jinx myself as the only pick I have this week is one that will go against the instincts of most NFL fans and bettors.


The Redskins are reeling. They've lost 5 in a row including one to Carolina. There is no sense of consistency as to who will get the bulk of the work at their main offensive positions. Their defense has been hit with injuries. Dallas has fared better of late. Their 44-point offensive outburst against Buffalo was their best performance in a long time, and there's talk that the NFC East could be theirs for the taking. So why am I going against the "hot" team playing against the "cold" team?

Two of the points I've made in earlier weeks are applicable here. First, Dallas has not done particularly well on the road. They lack the consistency to really be a heavy road favorite. The Redskins play significantly better at home. Second, this is their second game against each other this season. In the first game in Dallas, the Cowboys won on a late field goal. Now they play in Washington, and they have to lay a TD? Sure the teams are different than they were then, but I don't feel that the Cowboys played particularly badly in that game or that the Redskins played particularly well. 7 points is a lot to give on the road. Earlier in the week, and perhaps still at some books, the line was at 7.5.

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