Wednesday, November 23, 2011

NFL Picks Week 12 2011 (sport, gambling)

Defense may win championships, but many bettors don't realize that defense also covers spreads. Bettors often associate large spreads with dominant offenses, but a dominant defense can often propel a mediocre offense into covering a large spread. This is done not only by shutting down the opponent's offense, but by frequently providing the offense with good field position. Given enough chances with a short field, an NFL offense, no matter how bad, will manage to score.


This is a perfect example of a large spread that scares people away because of the mediocrity of the Jets' offense. But the Jets' defense is second in the league in opponent's QB rating, and should be able to provide good opportunities for their offense. In addition, two previously mentioned themes show up here as well. Buffalo is a significantly worse team on the road while the Jets are significantly better at home. They also played each other recently, with New York winning by double digits at Buffalo. Furthermore, New York has had 10 days to prepare for this game while this will be Buffalo's third consecutive road game. It just feels like Buffalo will be overwhelmed.

Under 38.5

How is it that a matchup between two of the top three defenses by opponents' PPG yields a total in the high 30s? My guess is this is another example of how fantasy football affects people's perspectives. Names like Flacco, Boldin, Gore, and Rice are on many fantasy teams, causing people to overestimate the actual offensive capabilities of their respective teams. I think this line should objectively be in the low to mid 30s, and I expect it to be an enjoyable, hard-fought, defense-dominated game.

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