Saturday, December 3, 2011

NFL Picks Week 13 2011 (sport, gambling)

It's always easiest to focus on what you do well. That leads some teams to be quite one-dimensional in their game plan. A team that is one-dimensional is actually more reliable to wager on or against than a team that is extremely good or bad, but more well-rounded.

Under 37.5

Denver's offense is not necessarily one-dimensional by choice. Tebow will sometimes just miss an open receiver. Minnesota's defense, however, has been fairly strong against the run, allowing only 3.67 yards per carry. Minnesota's offense has also been fairly one-dimensional, with a strong running game averaging 4.98 yards per carry. However, Adrian Peterson is out, and Christian Ponder has not really shown much. Add to that Denver's strong defensive performance in recent weeks, and I expect there to be a lot of punts in this game. Denver's substantial improvement on defense has coincided with Elvis Dumervil's 6 sacks in the last 4 games. This is a guy who had 17 sacks two years ago before he got injured, but someone whom many may have already forgotten.


This line might even move past the big 14 number if Bradford is indeed not playing. As I had mentioned earlier in the season, the gap between the best and the worst teams is just too big. Even though the 49ers didn't get much offense going against the Ravens last week, San Francisco has the best defense in the league, and I still believe that great defenses help mediocre offenses cover big spreads.

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