Thursday, September 5, 2013

Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 1 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)

The new football season is upon us, and I've decided to switch it up a little this season. Every week, I will pick an underdog that I think not only has a good chance to cover the spread, but that I think has a decent chance to win outright. Underdogs often provide good value from a betting standpoint, so I hope readers will appreciate the shift to just picking underdogs.

Now that there's a Thursday night game every week on the NFL schedule, I'll try my best to get my pick out before then. Underdog picks that have a chance to upset outright are also important because there are a lot of survivor pools out there.

Underdog of the Week:
PHI +3.5
PHI +160 ML

The line for this game was 4.5 as recently as mid-August. I looked back at week 1 upsets over the past few years and found that teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite vulnerable. Furthermore, over the past 5 seasons, at least one new coach won outright in an upset. While RG3 and Morris put up some amazing numbers last season, let's not forget that the Eagles were responsible for a high powered offense themselves not that long ago, and Vick, McCoy, Maclin, and Jackson are still there.

Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, teams that have been favored by exactly 1 point in week 1 have lost 8 out of 10 times.


Memphis MOJO said...

I look forward to this series -- thank you. I appreciate it that you give your reasoning, not just the picks.

Vick, McCoy, Maclin, and Jackson are still there.

Actually, Maclin is out for the year.

The Pretender said...

Thanks MOJO. And you're right about Maclin, good catch. Still sticking with the pick.

Will certainly be interesting how this series ends up. I haven't gone through the records, but I wonder if there are weeks where no underdog wins outright.