The new football season is upon us, and I've decided to switch it up a little this season. Every week, I will pick an underdog that I think not only has a good chance to cover the spread, but that I think has a decent chance to win outright. Underdogs often provide good value from a betting standpoint, so I hope readers will appreciate the shift to just picking underdogs.
Now that there's a Thursday night game every week on the NFL schedule, I'll try my best to get my pick out before then. Underdog picks that have a chance to upset outright are also important because there are a lot of survivor pools out there.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ WAS
PHI +160 ML
The line for this game was 4.5 as recently as mid-August. I looked back at week 1 upsets over the past few years and found that teams that had unexpectedly outperformed record-wise during the previous season, but were still inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, were quite vulnerable. Furthermore, over the past 5 seasons, at least one new coach won outright in an upset. While RG3 and Morris put up some amazing numbers last season, let's not forget that the Eagles were responsible for a high powered offense themselves not that long ago, and Vick, McCoy, Maclin, and Jackson are still there.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past 3 years, teams that have been favored by exactly 1 point in week 1 have lost 8 out of 10 times.