In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Of course after I'd given up on the Falcons they were the ones that pulled off the upset when I had to choose between Atlanta and New Orleans.
Underdog of the Week:
DET @ PHI
DET +125 ML
With three quarters of the season gone and no bye weeks left, stamina is going to matter. Having any extra days of rest for prep should be a distinct advantage. There were six teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday, and this week three of them are road underdogs getting less than a FG.
Of those three underdogs, Detroit has the best road record, which is one of the reasons I'm picking them. Another reason I like Detroit is that I think they match up well against Philadelphia. Even though the Eagles held on for a solid win against a good Arizona team, their secondary still looked vulnerable, and I can't imagine any lead to be safe with that defense against the Lions' passing offense. And while Foles' amazing QB numbers have been in the spotlight recently, I still think much of what makes that offense go is McCoy, and Detroit actually has a solid run defense.
Interesting Stat of the Week: Over the past 5 years, underdogs that played on Thanksgiving Thursday the previous week have gone 9-2 ATS and 4-7 straight up.
ML 5-8 +115