Monday, June 30, 2008

Value bet of the day (VBOTD)

Under 8.5

Stults has been sensational in his first two stints since they made him a starter while Oswalt has quietly put together 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. Combine that with the Dodgers having played 7 straight unders and the Astros having played 7 unders in their last 9, and 8.5 looks like a lot of runs.

Under 9.5

David Bush has pitched 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings and sports a .9 WHIP in his last 3 starts while Doug Davis has pitched 6 quality starts in his last 8 outings. Milwaukee has also played under in 5 of their last 6 outings, but perhaps the strangest thing is that 9.5 is the most runs in a total line for Arizona in their last 10 games, even though Arizona has pushed or gone under the total in 9 of those 10 games. I don't see any reason to fight the trend here.

Running total: +5
Record: 9-8

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