Saturday, September 26, 2009

NFL Week 3 (sport, gambling)

As for last week, I actually made a total of 4 picks throughout the day, but seem to have shared the only losing one. Oops. Let's try to do better this week. I find that week 3 is usually the last week to ride the early trend. As weeks 4 and 5 come, the difference between the fast starters and slow starters comes into play, there's better scouting in the league on the current season's teams, the hits and injuries start to pile up, and the lines have been influenced too much from the public pouring onto certain trends.

So here are the streaks I think will continue this week:

Over 51.5

The line opened at 52.5, and came back in because that's a high number. However, the Bills managed to give up almost 300 yards and 3 TDs to Byron Leftwich. As Bill Simmons wrote in his NFL picks column on Friday:

Ever started peeing and completely missed the toilet, then stood there thinking, "My God, I can't believe I just did that?" That's Byron Leftwich 10 times a game.

The Bills have enough talented players that they will score as well, especially if T.O. manages to drop a couple less passes.

Over 38.5
BAL -13.5

A 2-0 ATS (against the spread) team against an 0-2 ATS team. Baltimore has already covered a 2TD spread. More importantly, Baltimore has scored 38 and 31 points in its first two games. How is the O/U line still 38.5? Baltimore isn't a bend-but-don't-break defense. It's a playmaking defense, which will often lead to good field position for its offense or possibly a defensive score.

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