Saturday, November 7, 2009

NFL Week 9 (sport, gambling)

This week's theme is: You still suck.

Over 49

In Houston's win over Buffalo last week, Buffalo's offense had only 204 total yards. Then again, every team keeps Buffalo under 300 yards of total offense. Houston defense, you still suck. I expect Peyton Manning to complete dissect this defense and put up at least 5 TDs on offense. They'll probably need it because the Houston offense has been playing well of late, and has a lot of weapons even without their top two tight ends. In the last 9 meetings between these two teams since the '05 season, they've gone over in every single one and the least combined points they put up was 48 once. No reason to fight that trend.


Tampa Bay had a bye week, they're playing at home, and will start a new quarterback. None of that is going to help any because Tampa Bay, you still suck. Although for this team, it really starts with the coaching. They have some playmakers on both sides of the ball, but their schemes don't fit well with their talents. More importantly, this game is about Green Bay. They've shown to be a good team that can blow out weak teams, but they seem to keep coming up short against other good teams. With the two big losses to Minnesota, they need to take care of business against the weaker teams if they want another chance at them.

Now, for a segment I like to call, "That really happened?"
Two weeks ago in London, down 3 touchdowns with one quarter to go, Tampa Bay punted on 4th and 5 on the New England 35. That really happened? Are Jim Zorn and Raheem Morris interchangeable at this point?
Also two weeks ago, Green Bay had their opponents punting on 4th and 3 and committed a 12 men on field penalty. That really happened? It's one thing to jump offsides trying to block the punt. It's another to have a coaching meltdown and gift the opponents a first down when it should be your possession.


So Tennessee got their first win as Chris Johnson went off and Vince Young had an 80% completion percentage. However, they still rely too heavily on a running game and their secondary is still porous. Tennessee, you still suck. Definitely not as badly as before though. Yet the 49ers present a very tough matchup for the Titans and in the NFL, it really is about the matchups. Bad matchups are how a pass-happy Eagles team lost to a horrible Oakland team which has only one bright spot in the secondary. San Francisco has a tough run defense and hits hard. More importantly, they now have some genuine passing offense with Alex Smith throwing to Davis and Crabtree, and should take advantage of the Titan's still-weak secondary. Even with two close losses to good teams on the road, the 49ers now must take care of business at home to truly get the respect they deserve, and I fully expect Singletary to get them motivated and playing hard.

Interesting to note, this is the first week where the big favorites' lines have not firmed as the week's gone on, but have rather been moving in the opposite direction off key numbers. Perhaps the sharps think that this is the week when the books' adjustments to the favorites have gone too far. For example, Indy opened at 9.5 and is now 9, Atlanta opened at 10 and is now 9, Green Bay opened at 10 and is now 9.5, and the Saints opened at 14 and is now 13.


Dan Snyder is God said...

Like the GB bet a lot. I would also take Houston +9 in the Indy game. I think the losses of Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson are being underestimated. Atlanta -9 is tempting, but I think the market now truly understands how bad the 'Skins are, making that a fair line.

The Pretender said...

The main problem with the GB bet is that GB's pretty banged up against a fresh, even if ineffective, TB team.

The picks were posted before the Indy D injuries were confirmed. The line is now HOU+8 and O/U is 50.5.

As for Wash@Atl, Washington is not as bad as you think in some respects. While it's a bad team that can't put a game together to win it, they do pretty well in keeping the final tally close. Also, most of the bad teams this year actually do better on the road, because they don't face the constant booing of their own QB.

I read somewhere that Dan Snyder is trying to package another deal to own a Premiership team. He wants to be god in Europe too.