Friday, January 1, 2010

Changes to NBA2H (NBA2H, sport, gambling)

NBA2H was the alter-ego I created to record my NBA 2nd half betting strategy. Since starting on Dec 5th, I've made 170 total picks, going 102-68 for a 60% overall winning percentage. Here are some specific splits on those stats.

Sides 22-11 (66%)

Regular Overs 13-14 (48%)

Special Overs 8-9 (47%)

Regular Unders 36-18 (66%)

Special Unders 23-16 (59%)

Regular Bets 71-43 (62%)

Special Bets 31-25 (55%)

Using 1 unit per regular bet and 3 units per special bet, this comes out to +34.2 units.

While the sample size hasn't been huge, it's large enough for me to notice some specific trends and so I'm making a few changes for 2010. One of the main things is that the maximum multiple is 2.5 units for one bet. I sometimes read forum threads and people will make plays that are 5 or 10 units. I don't get it. If the 10-unit play is correctly valued, then my guess is this guy's 1-unit plays aren't worth playing. It just doesn't add up. The best read I've come across on varying bet-size was Thorp's 1997 paper on the Kelly Criterion and its applications in blackjack, sports betting, and the stock market. If you haven't come across it before, it's an interesting read. Maybe if I can confirm the NBA betting strategy after a season or two I'll start using that bankroll management.

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