Saturday, September 18, 2010

NFL Picks Week 2 2010 (sport, gambling)

Didn't start off well, but even though my main plays were off, the extra paired bets helped cut the losses.

For this week there's another paired play as well as a regular play.


Under 37

Even though Tennessee scored a lot of points last week, I expect this to be a defensive contest. Last year, Chris Johnson had his worst game of the season against the Steelers. However, with home field advantage and more weapons, if Chris Johnson does not get absolutely shut down like last season, the Titans are much more likely to put up points than the Steelers on the road.



I haven't gone through the actual numbers, but my gut feeling is that weeks 2-5 are the best times to take a big favorite with a loaded offense. Vegas cannot extend the line too much since it's early in the season, while the big favorite is usually still fresh and in a groove. Teams that come to mind are last year's Saints and the Pats in their 16-0 year. Even though there were execution problems last week, the Packers still managed 27 points. I don't see how this Buffalo team keeps up with them on the road, even if Green Bay is missing their lead running back.

Running total -1.2 units

No comments :