No paired bets this week. Just straight picks.
NE-14.5 (line opened at -13 early in the week)
Sticking with the theme of high powered offense laying lots of points early in the season. I expect the Pats to be angry after last week's loss to the Jets. Also, Brady, the guy with three Superbowl rings, might have something to prove what with the recent discontent among Boston fans with his hair and all. The injury to Faulk will hurt their efficiency, but if it leads to them playing more wide open 4-5 receiver sets, it might be easier to blow out the Bills. The Bills changed their QB once again, but as all Buffalo fans know, their problem lies with the O-line, and they could be in a world of trouble if they get behind early.
Well what about the other double digit favorites this week? While I wouldn't pick against either of them per se, neither team has actually lived up to the hype about their offense.
The absence of Revis will definitely be a factor, as I think Cromartie will have trouble handling the big strong possession receiver that is Brandon Marshall. While it's yet unclear whether the Dolphins are any good (they barely beat both Buffalo and Minnesota, though both were on the road), I'm looking at this game from the Jets point of view. It seems to me that without a focus on running the football, they live and die with Sanchez. Last week he did well against a Pats team that couldn't generate a pass rush late in the game. However, I expect more from the Miami defense at home. Also, he played well in the two meetings last year against the Dolphins, yet the Jets still lost. Imagine if he has a bad game?
Running total -.3 units