Sunday, October 10, 2010

Where did my football picks go? (sport, gambling)

Easy answer. There weren't any. Not just because my picks have been off, but because there literally was nothing on the board I liked. Remember, the bookmaker's edge is the vig, but the player's edge is that he doesn't have to handicap every game. I guess I was right because there were definitely some upsets that were tough to pick. A few thoughts about this week's games and the NFL season so far.

I'm still not sure whether Buffalo or Carolina is the worst team in the NFL right now. The Panthers been a little more competitive in their games, but I think Buffalo has played stronger opponents. In my fantasy league, I hoarded Marshawn Lynch for the expected trade, but Seattle was probably the worst of the possible destinations for me. I'm still quite happy with my Buffalo Regular Season Wins <5 futures bet though.

Even though the Colts are banged up, Kansas City did a good job of going on the road and being competitive. I think it goes to show that Crennel and Weis are still high level coordinators in the NFL, even if their head coaching stints didn't work out so well. I also have the Chiefs Regular Season Wins >6.5, so I'll be rooting for them.

I mentioned before to a couple of friends that I thought Carson Palmer was going to be this season's Jake Delhomme. He proved me right by pretty much singlehandedly losing the game by throwing 3 interceptions late. In my fantasy league, I actually picked up and started Tampa Bay's defense fully expecting the interceptions as the Buc's defensive players are good at jumping routes. The problem with Carson Palmer being this season's Jake Delhomme is that Jake Delhomme is still Jake Delhomme. The Browns were leading when Wallace was in, but that didn't last long. The Browns are not a bad team, and I fully expect them to continue to be frisky.

The NFC East continues to be schizophrenic. I still say the teams are talented, evidenced by wins against Houston and Green Bay, but there's just no week to week consistency from any of the four teams in that division.

It seems like every week a new team looks like they're in great shape to take the NFC West. San Francisco were clear preseason favorites, and then they got smoked by Seattle. Then St. Louis won two in a row for the first time in ages, routing Seattle at home. This week, it's Arizona, defeating a highly regarded Saints team. The Saints offense is clearly suffering from injuries, while many also predicted that the defense wouldn't be able to maintain the number of takeaways they had last year. However, I still expect them to be in it when the end of the season comes around.

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