Sunday, September 11, 2011

NFL Picks Week 1 2011 (sport, gambling)

It's always hard to gauge how much an injury will affect a team. In the NBA, the line usually moves too much in response to an injury of a star player, and I've read about plenty of systems fading that move. I'm not so sure that's the case in the NFL however, since star players are much harder to replace, and because so many more plays have to be successful just to get a score in the NFL.

IND@HOU
Under 44

So for my first pick, I'm going on the assumption that the loss of Peyton Manning and Arian Foster (whether he misses the game or plays in a weakened state) will be worth at least two scores. In their last 10 matchups, the two teams have combined for an average of 54 points while the O/U line has averaged 48. I think 44 represents good value here. Besides the loss in actual scores, every TD that now becomes a FG is a 4 point differential.

PIT@BAL
Over 36.5

We all know how good both defenses are. But there is plenty of optimism about how good both offenses can be as well. Both teams do execute their gameplans well and tend to be very well prepared. In the end, both defenses are getting older while both offenses have players entering their prime. I think this is a good time to jump aboard both teams' offensive bandwagons before people realize how good they are.

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