Saturday, January 21, 2012

NFL Playoff Picks 2011-2012: Conference Round Sunday (sport, gambling)

I was originally hoping Green Bay would win so I could go heavy on San Francisco this week, as I knew Green Bay hadn't played a good defense all season (the best defense they faced was Kansas City, in their only loss). However, the Giants stepped up and won in convincing fashion, helped by 5 turnovers.

Line: NE-7, o/u 50

Just like Green Bay, the Ravens defense hasn't has been tested this season. The best offense they played was San Diego, and the Chargers put up 34 points on them. The Patriots, on the other hand, did at least play the Steelers, Giants, and Jets. In the end, it comes back to matchups, and the strength of Baltimore's defense is stopping the run, which is not a huge part of the Patriots offense. While the Patriots defense isn't great, Baltimore's offense has not been inspiring either. The only way Baltimore wins this game is to shut down the Patriots on offense, and if the Patriots jump out early, I don't see Baltimore catching up.

NE-7, Over 50

6:30PM ET
Line: SF-2, o/u 41.5

As I mentioned before, turnovers are hard to predict, and coming off a week where these two teams forced a total of 9 turnovers, it's hard to figure out what might happen here. It is also hard to use previous results from this season as this Giants team feels almost like a different team. Much of the hype is on the Giants right now, with many believing that the line might move to a pick'em by game time.

Even though the Giants' running game appears to have come back some, they clearly rely on big plays in the passing game to score. Much of that comes from their receivers making big plays, and I assume the 49ers will game plan for that, especially as New Orleans managed those same big plays at the end of their game last week. If San Francisco manages to limit those big plays, I think they win a tight, low scoring slugfest.

SF-2 (might want to wait till last minute), Under 41.5

Recap of bets I really like:
Like I said, there's too much randomness in the Giants game for my taste. As far as the Patriots game goes, 7 offers a pretty good value considering the line sent out originally was 9. Certainly there's a very good chance that the Patriots just blow the game wide open. In either case, I think if the Patriots do cover, it will be a high scoring game, making the parlay decent value.
2 team parlay:
NE-7 and BAL@NE Over 50

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