Saturday, January 14, 2012

NFL Playoff Picks 2011-2012: Divisional Round Sunday (sport, gambling)

Going 4-0 on Saturday felt good. Most importantly, I correctly recommended going heavy on the first game, and there was never really any danger of losing both picks in that game.

Line: BAL-7.5, o/u 36.5

This season's Ravens team has been the epitome of playing to the level of your competition. Their 4 losses during the regular season were all to teams without a winning record, while they went 0-4 ATS in games where they were favored by double digits. Is Houston the kind of team that will get Baltimore to play their best? Houston only played two teams this season where they were considered the weaker team. They were at Baltimore and at New Orleans, and lost both games both straight up and ATS. I think this game will come back to coaches and matchups, and Houston's reliance on the running game will match up poorly against Baltimore's second ranked run defense which gave up only 3.54 yards/rush.

As far as the total is concerned, my feeling is that when two of the top four scoring defenses play each other, the line should be 33 or below. So I feel that there is some edge to the under. However, these two defenses were not as dominant as the 49ers and Steelers were this season, and so the edge is not as significant.

BAL-7.5, Under 36.5

4:30PM ET
Line: GB-7.5, o/u 53

The Giants certainly seem to be peaking at the right time, with their defense putting in three consecutive strong performances. But the offenses they played were not as dynamic as the Packers offense, and much of their recent success can be attributed to turnover differential, as they were even before the last few games of the season. Turnovers are hard to predict, but Green Bay has been very good this year at preventing turnovers. This line opened at 9, but has somehow been bought down to 7.5 on the hype of this Giants defense. Green Bay, however, has won every game at home this season by at least 8 points (except for the Detroit game Rodgers sat out). This makes the line very attractive down here at 7.5.

The Giants have had 4 games this season where the total has been 50 or higher. The over came in in 3 of those 4 games, and the only game that went under was when New England had 4 turnovers against the Giants and scored their second lowest offensive total of the year with 20 points.

GB-7.5, Over 53

Recap of bets I really like:
It looks like the Giants will have to rely on turnovers if they're to cover or keep the score low. Otherwise, I see value specifically at 7.5 and predict the Giants will be playing catch-up, which they're very capable of doing to hit the over.
NYG@GB Over 53

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