Saturday, January 7, 2012

NFL Playoff Picks 2011-2012: First Round Sunday (sport, gambling)

Even though the Lions-Saints game turned into the shootout everyone expected, you would have still made money betting the unders and hedging. So I would dare to say that the first day of playoff picks went well. Now onto Sunday's games.

Line: NYG-3, o/u 47.5

How do you pick this game when Atlanta is extremely consistent and the Giants are extremely inconsistent? It's too hard to figure out what will happen in the game, so let's just use some small sample regular season stats to help. Atlanta has only beaten one team with a winning record during the regular season. While the Giants have had some surprising losses against noticeably weaker teams, they have managed to beat teams that are on par with them. Except for their week 1 loss to Washington, the Giants have covered every spread this season that was 3 or less. So I'm going with the Giants on this one. As far as the total goes, the Giants have gone over totals over 50 while under totals in the high 40s. What that probably suggests is that the Giants can keep up against a high octane throwing offense, but won't press the issue otherwise. Since Atlanta is not an offensive juggernaut, I think the under is the play here.

NYG-3, Under 47.5

4:30PM ET
Line: PIT-9, o/u 33.5

Is the Tebow magic over? Another game that's hard to predict because Pittsburgh is ravaged by injuries while Denver, even during their streak of wins, did not really prove that they were an effective football team. Again, let's go with some regular season trends. Pittsburgh plays much better at home, and even though they are an elite team, they had three road games where they were favored by a TD or more and failed to cover all three of those games. Denver's season has basically revolved around keeping games close, and I don't see this hurt Steelers team getting enough separation. The total is low because Pittsburgh has the best scoring defense in the NFL and both teams have had trouble scoring. Since their bye week, the Steelers have managed just 29 points in three road games. If the Steelers can't get any separation, I don't think Denver will open up their defense until they have to.

DEN+9, Under 33.5

Recap of bets I really like:
There really isn't any. The Giants have been one of the hardest teams to bet on this season. I do think there's some +EV to combining bets for my view of what will likely happen in the Steelers-Broncos game.
2 team parlay:
DEN+9 and PIT@DEN Under 33


Memphis MOJO said...

Bodog (bovada) wouldn't let me parlay Denver -- boo on them.

Memphis MOJO said...

When I used to bet with a bookie, they had what were called "correlated parlays" and I think this is one of them. The book would reduce the odds from 2.6 to 1 to 2 to 1, but you could still bet them. Surprised Bodog won't do the same thing.

Is this correct?

The Pretender said...

Well, probably a good thing you couldn't put in the parlay. That under is not looking good. I'm surprised they don't let you parlay a side with a total.

To my knowledge, a correlated parlay is something like when you try to parlay a side (or a total) for both 1H and full game. A side with a total really shouldn't be considered a correlated parlay. To my knowledge, most books have taken off correlated parlays, and just don't let you bet them at all.

The Pretender said...

I also think that "the favorite + the over" is one of the most common public parlays for MNF, and likely a big moneymaker for books. So I doubt it's a common thing to not let people parlay the side and the total of the same game.