Thursday, November 7, 2013

Underdog of the Week: NFL 2013-2014 Season Week 10 (sport, gambling, NFLUnderdog13)

In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.

Underdog of the Week:
ATL +5.5
ATL +210 ML

As the season is now past the halfway point, it's easy to have the recency effect take over and only focus on what happened the previous week as opposed to earlier in the year. Teams coming off a bad loss may appear much worse than they actually are. Over the past 5 years, teams that have lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were a TD or less underdog in week 10 went 9-7 SU.

Atlanta has looked horrible the last two weeks, including week 8 when I took them against Arizona. However, both of those were on the road whereas they've had two wins at home as well as a close loss to a Jets team that's now proving to be not as bad as everyone first thought. I think Atlanta is in a good spot here this week. Seattle has been playing poorly the past two weeks, barely eking out wins against weak teams. Atlanta is still missing a couple of their top playmakers, but a few weeks of playing together and a return home should help the substitutes step up.

Interesting Stat of the Week:
Sometimes, bad teams are just bad, regardless of the recency effect. Over the past five seasons, those teams that lost by 10 or more points in week 9 and were an underdog of more than a TD in week 10 went 2-6 ATS.

ATS 7-2
ML 4-5 +30

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