In this series, I will pick an underdog every week that I think will not only cover the spread, but also have a good chance at winning outright.
Underdog of the Week:
PHI @ OAK
PHI +115 ML
Conventional wisdom has home field advantage worth about 3 points. Home teams that are about even or slightly worse than their opponents will still end up favored in the spread. However, that home field advantage hasn't seem to help those teams during week 9. In the past 5 seasons, home favorites of 3 or fewer points have gone 1-8 both straight up and ATS.
Philadelphia fits the criteria this week, being a small underdog despite scoring ten total points in their last two games combined. However, it's possible the Eagles just play better on the road, having been winless at home so far this season. The return of Nick Foles should help to jump start that offense as well.
Interesting Stat of the Week:
Over the past five seasons, home favorites of 3.5 points were 0-4 ATS and 0-2 SU.
ML 3-5 -70