Saturday, May 31, 2008

VBOTD (Value bet of the day)

WAS@ARI
Under 8 -115

Bergmann hasn't given up an earned run in his last 3 starts and everyone knows how good Webb can be. Neither team has been tearing it up hitting-wise, although I've been kinda worried about Arizona's defense. However, 8 runs is still a good value under bet.

Running total: -65
Record: 6-6

There have been a lot less value under bets so far this season than there were last season. It seems to me that a lot of the lines have come down at least half a run compared to similar scenarios last season. There have been a lot more 7 and 7.5 total lines in the American League, and a lot of lines that would have been 8.5 last year are now 8. This makes it tougher to identify solid value lines, but things should be better as the season goes on I think.

2 comments :

wildman said...

Why do you assume that this will improve later in the season rather than assume that the linesmakers are making appropriate adjustments? I don't doubt you are right, I just wonder why this should be.

The Pretender said...

I think total lines in general have a small upward drift as the season goes on because of (rationally assumed) pitcher fatigue, especially for middle relief. Since one of the bases for my picks is to take strong starting pitchers who are likely to go deep, I think there will be more value opportunities for my selection criteria as the season goes on.