Saturday, August 4, 2007

VBOTD (Value bet of the day)

Under 8

Another case of two possibly dominant pitchers. Both John Maine and Ted Lilly have pitched spectacularly this season. But what is most interesting about this line is that about 2 weeks ago there was a game at Wrigley with Roy Oswalt pitching against Ted Lilly. The O/U line for that game was 10. Does Vegas really think Oswalt is two runs worse than Maine or that Houston is 2 runs better than the Mets? The only rational explanation that was given was the fact that the wind was blowing out that day. And yet, Oswalt happened to have his worst career outing by giving up 8 earned runs. Sometimes, Vegas just knows. And with Vegas knowing, 8 is a pretty good value number if either of these pitchers bring their A game.

Running total: +770
Record: 12-5

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