Sunday, August 5, 2007


Under 8.5

Carmona has been dominating of late which is going to be bad news for Minnesota who have struggled offensively since the all-star break and have only scored 5 or more runs once in their last 10 games. Scott Baker has been consistently good and the Twins bullpen is very solid. 8.5 is about as low as the line can be set when both pitchers are not marquee names, but is still good value when the two pitchers on the mound can pitch like marquee names.

Running total: +770
Record: 12-5

Speaking of marquee pitching matchups, there are two today that should be fun to watch. Lackey against Haren in Oakland and Webb against Penny in LA. I was originally going to suggest that there was good value in getting Webb and Arizona at +115 as Arizona has been on a hot streak while the Dodgers have gone in the opposite direction. Penny's last 3 outings, while good, have not been as dominant as all those one run or fewer outings he posted earlier in the season. At the last moment I stayed off of recommending it because Valverde has already pitched two consecutive nights.

John Maine was out by the third inning yesterday but Lilly brought his A game and they managed to push the O/U at 8 with some great bullpen work by the Mets. That is why I like taking unders when both pitchers are capable of being dominant because if one screws up, the other can still hold the damage.

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