Sunday, August 19, 2007

VBOTD (Value bet of the day)

CIN -105

This line is so scary good value that I'm wondering what it is Vegas knows that I don't. Here's what I know. Since starting the season 5-0 with 2 no decisions, the Brewers have lost the last 15 games that Capuano has started. Of those 15 games, the Brewers were favored in 11 of them and Capuano's job in the starting rotation is essentially on the line in this outing. Harang, meanwhile, has been solid all season and yet has been a consistently good value the whole time. I've been on the Harang bandwagon for a while now and there's nothing that indicates to me it's time to get off yet.

Under 8.5

Even though the Indians broke out with 8 runs yesterday, I'm not ready to say that their bats are completely back yet. This quality pitching matchup along with both teams' uninspiring offenses make this over/under a good value still, even though it is a full 2 runs below the over/under for the same two teams two nights ago.

Running record: +1085
Record: 17-7

The three teams that I have followed and recommended most consistently and successfully this season have been the Indians, Dodgers, and Reds. I tend to only choose the Reds when Harang is pitching, but the Indians and Dodgers actually have a lot in common this season. Both have very strong consistent staffs (Carmona, Sabathia, Byrd for Cleveland and Penny, Billingsley, Wolf, and Lowe for L.A.) and capable offenses that run in very prolonged streaks. As the season winds down, I can only hope there will be other teams with similar characteristics that I can identify next season. The only problem so far with recommending Indians and Reds games has been having to sit through the excruciating torture that is watching Borowski and David Weathers try to "save" games. They somehow get it done but it's never easy.

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