Saturday, September 20, 2008

NFL picks

After going 2 for 3 in both the first two weeks of the season, I have 4 picks for this week. I like Atlanta -6 (the line was -5.5 for most of the week), Buffalo -9.5, New Orleans-Denver over 51, and Cleveland-Baltimore under 38.

Atlanta has already shown that it can win at home, and the Chiefs have allowed big games by the opponents' rushing game so far this season (McFadden last week, New England running backs averaged 5+ yards per carry) which should play right into the Falcons' hands. Buffalo has been a very solid team so far this season, having been able to beat their opponents on all three sides of the ball (offense, defense, special teams). More importantly, they can stop the run, which is the only thing Oakland has going for them. Everybody expects a shootout in Denver this week, and I don't see how these teams will disappoint. Both have big play receivers, slow secondary, and cannon-arm quarterbacks. Lastly, I just don't see how Cleveland will score against this rested and rejuvenated Ravens defense, while looking back at Baltimore's week 1 game, their two scores basically came when they broke two big run plays. Cleveland has actually handled that pretty well, keeping opponents from breaking the big play on the ground.

Although I like these picks as is, I understand that any of these picks would work well in a teaser, so have fun with that.

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