Thursday, September 25, 2008

NFL picks

So far so good to start the season (6-3-1), although I personally managed to get the Baltimore under at 38.5. This week's picks include Denver -9.5, New Orleans -5, and the Cleveland-Cincinatti over 44.5.

When the lines first came out, both Denver and San Diego were 9.5 point favorites. But Oakland is clearly a better team than Kansas City and San Diego is at best equal to Denver given how close they played. In stock-speak, I would have recommended going long one and short the other, ie. take Denver -9.5 and take Oakland +9.5. Since then, the line has moved to San Diego -7.5, so that game is now off my radar. Denver still has an amazing offense and I just can't see the Chiefs keeping up with them. And since I don't expect the Chiefs to have a shot on their last possession, that means I expect Denver to win by more than a TD, so 9.5 looks pretty solid. New Orleans is battling a lot of injuries but their offense is still very explosive with playmakers like Brees and Bush. The over might not be a bad play here. I just don't trust the 49ers, who have beaten two bad teams (yes I consider Seattle a bad team) and are playing on the road where the Saints have had a pretty good home field advantage. As for the last pick, I'm just going to point out that these two teams have played against Balt (twice), Dallas, NYG, Tenn, and Pitt. All outstanding and tough defenses. While I'm not expecting a shootout like the ridiculous one last season, mid 40s is a reasonable number to expect these teams to go over.

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